Why South Korea must lead efforts to denuclearise the peninsula

The US’ past attempts to denuclearise the peninsula have been too dependent on ‘sticks’ and a resolution is not the matter of life and death it is to South Korea
Yoon Suk-yeol must offer Kim a deal which has China’s support and that offers the regime a better chance of survival without nuclear weapons

Chan Young Bang

Published: 3:30am, 10 Mar 2023

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The Yoon Suk-yeol administration in South Korea is the only party which can denuclearise North Korea. It must do so by establishing permanent peace and stability through joint economic prosperity on the Korean peninsula. These essential attributes must either all come together or not at all.

Last year, North Korea’s ballistic missile testing hit a record high. Pyongyang is thought to be planning another nuclear test, its seventh overall, which would be a blatant violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Moreover, the regime’s dysfunctional socialist economic system, coupled with the pressure of harsh sanctions, perpetuates the country’s dire economic situation and chronic instability.

Only Yoon can resolve the issue, by formulating a viable shared policy involving all stakeholder states. This must include a comprehensive and economically transformative package deal offered in return for the cessation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s nuclear weapons programme. The deal must provide North Korea with a genuine chance of survival, trading its nuclear weapons for a bright future.

There are four critical reasons the South Korean government must take the lead in devising a shared policy aimed at the denuclearisation of the peninsula.

First, the United States’ past attempts to denuclearise the peninsula have singularly failed, due to its inability to make North Korea an offer it cannot refuse. The US is heavily dependent on a “sticks” only approach, failing to incorporate the essential “carrots” necessary to achieve strategic success.

China, on its part, can wield credible “sticks”, as it accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s trade, including in energy.

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North Korea tests more missiles, says US forces pushing it to use Pacific as ‘firing range’

Threats and promises, as defined in James W. Davis’ theory of international influence, constitute the only viable tool to achieve the denuclearisation of North Korea. Kim must understand that his regime will end if he keeps nuclear arms. However, the sole application of “sticks” would instigate further armed provocation from North Korea and could trigger an all-out war. Only Yoon can introduce a shared policy that all stakeholders will support and that North Korea cannot refuse.

Second, Yoon’s government should lead the talks as there is a critical difference in the core policy objectives of the US and South Korea.

The US’ overriding objective is denuclearisation. However, for South Korea, denuclearisation must be accompanied by permanent peace, stability and economic prosperity on the peninsula. To accomplish these policy objectives, two conditions must be fulfilled.

There must be a practical end to hostility between the two Koreas. This will only come about if denuclearisation is preceded by a radical change of the Juche ideology, the main source of North Korea’s belligerent foreign policy.

In addition, the North must pave the way for a bright future with sustained economic development, transforming into a market socialist system, and receiving enough financial resources from the South Korean government to support economic prosperity.

For the US, North Korea is a regional threat, but for South Korea, the issue is one of life and death.

01:16

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un convenes meeting to boost economy amid worsening food shortages

Third, attempts to achieve denuclearisation in the framework of the six-party talks cannot succeed without the active support of China. Beijing has a dual function in the talks. It is the only country able to apply the debilitating 2017 UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, and is its only socialist ally.

Without South Korea leading the efforts, rather than the US, the chances are slim that China would come on board.

Some conditions will also need to be met to secure Chinese support. Denuclearisation must be accompanied by the realisation of permanent peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. It should not take place in a way that results in the demise of North Korea.

Moreover, North Korea, as a non-nuclear weapon state, must contribute positively to regional peace and stability, and serve as a buffer to counter US military influence on the peninsula.

Upon the establishment of permanent peace and stability through the package deal, US troops should depart the peninsula. The US military presence is intended to provide deterrence against North Korea’s military threat and would become redundant once the North Korean threat has evaporated.

01:26

Washington, Seoul conduct joint air drills after US defence secretary visits South Korea

Fourthly, for the deal to succeed, it must offer North Korea a better chance to survive without nuclear weapons. The Kim regime perceives the nuclear programme as a strategic asset that is essential to its survival for several reasons.

The programme provides deterrence against US military threats both real and imagined. It is a cost-effective way to maintain a military edge over South Korea and its vastly superior economy. It is a pillar of the byungjin policy, involving the simultaneous pursuit of military might and economic development. As a monumental achievement for Kim Jong-un, the programme provides legitimacy to the regime. Finally, it is a means for North Korea to wage its belligerent foreign policy.

To survive, the regime must be compensated for these attributes. It thus follows that security guarantees, peace treaties and the lifting of sanctions alone will not suffice to ensure North Korea’s survival.

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The only way for North Korea to survive is to secure legitimacy through the achievement of sustained, dynamic and robust economic development, with global economic integration, implementing market-oriented reforms and securing sufficient funds. For North Korea to survive as a non-nuclear state, Pyongyang must lay the foundation for economic modernisation by achieving 10 per cent growth per annum for at least a decade.

For the package deal to ensure the survival of North Korea as a non-nuclear state, it has to be not only transactional, but also transformational, converting a distorted socialist economy to market socialism.

Dr Chan Young Bang is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at North Korea Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev