In an insecure world, more countries are reaching for nuclear weapons

From Seoul to Warsaw, Belarus and beyond, more nations are looking to acquire or host nuclear arms from the US, Russia and possibly Iran down the road
The post-Cold War non-proliferation movement is reversing – and our world is in peril

Abishur Prakash

Published: 1:00am, 16 Mar 2023

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China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, recently warned that his country and the United States were on a course towards “conflict and confrontation”. The warning, from one nuclear power to another, comes as a new danger spreads around the globe.

From the Indo-Pacific to Europe, the possibility that nuclear weapons will be used preemptively is growing. But something else is also taking place. A handful of countries, each with their geopolitical dilemmas, are opening up to the idea of hosting nuclear weapons. Suddenly, geopolitical flashpoints risk becoming nuclear flashpoints.

With North Korea issuing more threats, South Korea now wants nuclear weapons. One possibility is that Seoul makes a deal with the US to maintain its nuclear arms, though the power to use them would remain with Washington. That Seoul would want this is a sign the conflict on the Korean peninsula has entered a new phase.

Any such deal would suggest an acceptance by Seoul and Washington that peace and reconciliation with Pyongyang are next to impossible – and that a new kind of “war footing” is being explored.

But what happens if Australia or the Philippines also wants similar treatment? Suddenly, Asia could have more nuclear-capable countries than just China, India and North Korea.

And, if the US refuses to give nuclear weapons to some allies in the Indo-Pacific, it could upend the geopolitical alignment of these countries.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un guides a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” test as part of the development of a new strategic weapon, at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri on December 15. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

In the Middle East, it’s a different dynamic. As Iran moves closer to building a nuclear bomb, Israel has warned that it’s “now or never” to stop Tehran. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it will give rise to two big changes.

First, Iran might use them geopolitically, and share them with a host of nations from Venezuela to Syria. Such a status quo, where Caracas or Damascus could acquire nuclear weapons, would put the West in the geopolitical hot seat. Second, a nuclear-armed Iran will generate a “survival crisis” for its adversaries.

Saudi Arabia and Iran may have restarted their relationship through China, but an Iranian nuclear bomb would change things. Saudi Arabia has cautioned that “all bets are off” if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon. Does this mean Saudi Arabia will also develop nuclear weapons to defend itself?

And, as the Ukraine conflict enters its second year, a new game of “nuclear chess” has started in Europe. Just days after the war began, people in Belarus voted to host Russian nuclear weapons. A few months later, Poland signalled its willingness to host American nuclear weapons.

Who is next? Should nuclear weapons begin to surface in Eastern Europe, the balance of power between the two poles of the continent could be affected.

The world is entering an era when more countries could have nuclear weapons than at any point in history. This is a massive shift. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been focused on nuclear non-proliferation.

As the club of nuclear powers threatens to expand, there are seismic implications for the world.

First, much of America’s power comes from other nations’ reliance on it. Whether Poland, Japan or Saudi Arabia, a “glue” connecting these nations with America is defence. If America’s allies start taking defence into their own hands, say with nuclear weapons, it would massively erode Washington’s power.

Second, the threat of nuclear weapons could lead to war. Could Israel take action against Iran? Will North Korea attack the South before Seoul gets its nuclear weapons? The beginning of another war, over nuclear arms, will threaten the global stability just as the effects of the Ukraine war are still snowballing. Can the international community effectively manage two major wars at a time?

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Seoul Mayor says South Korea should build nuclear weapons in the face of threats from the North

Third, as more countries aspire to become nuclear powers, who will they turn to? Indonesia might turn to India. Brazil might ask Russia and China. Suddenly, a decision by the US to hand over nuclear weapons might open the door for other nuclear powers to do the same.

Lastly, how countries use their nuclear weapons could generate the next Cuban missile crisis. If the Philippines were to acquire nuclear weapons, it might station them on South China Sea islands that Beijing claims. Will this lead to a nuclear showdown in Asia? This situation could replicate globally as nuclear weapons spread, creating a permanent state of crisis for governments.

Worrying revival of interest in nuclear weapons in China, South Korea

For many years, the threat of nuclear war seemed to be fading away. The idea that nuclear weapons would be used seemed close to impossible. There was just too much at stake.

Today, however, a new kind of thinking has taken over in nations. Because of the Ukraine conflict, the most pressing need for many governments is to defend the longevity of their nations against invasion and destruction. Suddenly, it feels like nuclear weapons are no longer so taboo – they just might be the best way to ensure survival.

A new nuclear arms race has begun. Of course, many will try to impose rules and moratoriums to stop its spread. But this will fail.

Little can be done to change the new thinking of these countries. Everybody must accept that, as nuclear weapons spread, a nuclear strike becomes a realistic possibility. And with this, everybody must adapt and start figuring out how to operate under the shadow of a constant and growing threat.

Abishur Prakash is a co-founder and geopolitical futurist at the Center for Innovating the Future (CIF), an advisory firm based in Toronto, Canada