US-Russia dialogue must prevail in stormy Black Sea after drone crash

Given the dangerous prospect of a US-Russian military conflict that could spark a global escalation, efforts must move towards diplomacy and dialogue

Akhmad Hanan

Published: 3:30am, 25 Mar 2023

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Worryingly, the US seems unconcerned about triggering a potential conflict with Russia in the Black Sea. On March 14, its MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed into the sea after an encounter with two Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft. As tensions rose and despite Russian complaints, the US quickly resumed its intelligence mission over the sea with another drone, the RQ-4 Global Hawk.

The US also said that one of the SU-27s had deliberately struck the propeller of the Reaper drone, causing it to crash. Russia denied this, saying the Reaper drone had become unstable after a sharp manoeuvre. It also pointed to the drone’s presence in the area as evidence the US was “directly participating” in the Ukraine war, an accusation the US denies.

For the US, the MQ-9 Reaper is an important part of the drone fleet used for intelligence gathering and surveillance operations, and a symbol of its military’s technological superiority. The loss of such a drone is a blow to the US and raises concerns about the safety of its operations in the region.

The Black Sea is an important commercial and transport corridor, with the nearby Bosphorus Strait and Dardanelles Strait providing direct access to Europe and the Middle East. The sea is also rich in gas and oil reserves, which play an important role in global energy security.

Conflicting interests, particularly with regard to influence and security in the wider region, have led to tensions in the Black Sea between Russia and the US-led transatlantic security alliance. Each side is taking steps to further its influence and protect its interests.

For now, Russia has greater strategic, economic and military interests in the area. Since 2014, when Moscow seized control of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, tensions have been rising between Russia and Western nations, in particular the US.

Both Russia and the US want to increase their own geopolitical sway in the Black Sea region. While Russia has historically had close ties with Kazakhstan and Armenia, the US has partnerships with Romania and Bulgaria.

Over the years, both US and Russian military involvement in the Black Sea has grown. While the US has strengthened its air and sea patrols, Russia has increased its military actions in Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula. Consequently, tensions between the two countries in the Black Sea raise the prospect of a military conflict that could spark a global escalation. If conflict is to be avoided, there must be intensive diplomacy and dialogue.

Moscow has repeatedly objected to the US flying its drone intelligence missions over the Black Sea near the Crimean peninsula, keeping up its tough stance even as the Ukraine conflict raged on. After the US drone crash, Moscow honoured the Su-27 pilots involved and praised them for driving it out of Russian airspace.

02:18

Pentagon releases footage showing Russian fighter jet intercepting US drone

There is unlikely to be a simple solution to the complex conflict between Russia and the US in the Black Sea. Establishing a constructive dialogue between the two countries through international organisations, such as the United Nations or Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, also seems impossible.

To avoid conflict with Russia in the Black Sea, the US, for a start, has a few options. First, it should increase transparency by giving plenty of warning about its military operations in the region and those conducted with its allies. Second, it should improve dialogue and engagement with Russia, holding discussions to clarify their separate perspectives and to talk about security-related concerns in the region. Third, the US can collaborate with nations such as Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and, in the future, Ukraine to bolster security in the Black Sea without having to act provocatively towards Russia.

To achieve a long-term and effective solution, both countries must be willing to take a constructive approach and work together to achieve common goals.

Akhmad Hanan is a researcher in energy security at the Purnomo Yusgiantoro Centre, a think tank based in Indonesia

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