EU’s struggle to find a unified stance on China will shape the US-China contest
- Macron has pushed for strategic autonomy while von der Leyen talks of ‘divide and conquer’ tactics and seeking a ‘distinct European approach’
- All of these reflect the EU’s dilemma in finding an effective China policy
Some quickly inferred that France was breaking ranks with the United States and other members of the Western alliance to kowtow to China. In reality, Paris remains in consonance with the traditional European geopolitical template.
The initial reaction to Macron’s China visit and von der Leyen’s remarks are an insight into the EU’s strategic dilemma in developing an effective and affordable China policy.
The EU has traditionally supported the international norm of nations respecting a rules-based global order. On the China visit, the Xi-Macron statement talked about seeking “constructive solutions based on international law to address the challenges and threats to international security and stability”. This is in keeping with the EU position.
But it included a new element: “France and China agree to deepen discussions on strategic issues and in particular to deepen dialogue between the Southern Theatre Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Command of French Forces in the Asia-Pacific Zone (ALPACI), in order to enhance their mutual understanding of regional and international security issues.”
The EU has been struggling to arrive at a consensus position on China since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This was highlighted in EU chief von der Leyen’s recent speech when she noted: “I believe we can – and we must – carve out our own distinct European approach that also leaves space for us to cooperate with other partners, too. And the starting point for this is the need to have a shared and very clear-eyed picture of the risks and the opportunities in our engagement with China.”
In prioritising a “distinct European approach”, she is charting a path closer to the Macron formulation, albeit in a more subtle and nuanced manner, and the signal for the US is in the subtext.
Europe’s diplomatic dance with China won’t foil Xi-Putin friendship
In their communique, they spoke of their “strong sense of unity as the world navigates grave threats to the international system, including Russia’s continued war of aggression against Ukraine”. They also reaffirmed their commitment “to uphold and reinforce the free and open international order based on the rule of law”.
Beijing will no doubt study the outcome of the Hiroshima summit carefully and calibrate its support to a beleaguered Russia, even as the new contours of the US-China contest begin to crystallise.
How France and the rest of its EU partners harmonise their China policy will have a bearing on the geopolitics of 2023 and the resolution, or lack thereof, of the war in Ukraine.
Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), an independent think tank based in New Delhi