Only a strong, united Asean can withstand pressure of US-China great power rivalry

If Asean leaders truly believe centrality is needed to survive great power rivalry, they must do more to strengthen the bloc’s unity
Trade, education and cultural exchanges can foster a strong sense of interdependence and common prosperity to counter mutual distrust

Chee Yik-wai

Published: 3:30am, 28 Apr 2023

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French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent comments about the European Union’s strategic independence amid big power conflict, while music to Beijing’s ears, displeased many proponents of closer transatlantic relations. Asean leaders such as Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim and Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong have also called for cooperation over destructive rivalry.

The centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been championed as a strategy in fending off the pressure the region comes under from big power conflicts. It is also an Asean quality that both the United States and China appear to support. But how the regional bloc can shore up its centrality is not easily answered.

Asean, with its members’ distinct cultures and plurality of religions, is not a homogenous community and the bloc has a bedrock principle of non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs. For Asean centrality to work well, the development of commonalities is essential.

Yet the lack of institutional efforts to promote cultural interaction among the people of Asean severely restricts this goal. Ironically, the superpowers that Asean leaders are so wary of seem to have done more to bring Asean citizens together, if only to align with their narratives and interests.

The US has poured in the most resources. Its Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative, established in 2013 during the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia”, offers cultural exchanges through workshops in the Asean region and to the US, and provides seed grants for social projects.

The network has grown to some 150,000 young people across Asean, and its alumni includes leaders in government, civil society and corporations.

US president Barack Obama is introduced by Tu Ngo (left), a member of the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative network, as he arrives to speak to Vietnamese young people at the GEM Centre in Ho Chi Minh City on May 25, 2016. Photo: AP

In trade, China has been Asean’s top partner since 2009, and most Asean members see more trade with China than with any bloc member. China is also a major provider of scholarships for Asean students to study in the country and numbers have steadily increased over the years.

With the economies of Cambodia, Laos and sanctions-hit Myanmar largely dependent on good relations with China, it is difficult to see how they would uphold the interests of fellow Asean members if they conflict with China’s. This is especially so when it comes to Asean’s negotiations with China over a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea.

Such considerations could affect the legitimate interests of Asean members in actual disputes. Even direct negotiations between disputing Asean parties and China could prove difficult when competing claims also exist between the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia with regard to territorial waters.

The Philippines has a long-running dispute over the ownership of the Malaysian state of Sabah on the island of Borneo. In 2013, the dispute turned deadly when an armed group from a sultanate in the southern Philippines invaded Sabah to assert its sovereignty. The Lahad Datu stand-off resulted in the death of 56 militants, six civilians and 10 Malaysian soldiers.

There are many more examples of how Asean states have reason to distrust one another if one digs deeper, from environmental issues to the plight of Rohingya refugees. Realities frequently undermine any proclaimed consensus to prioritise Asean interests and centrality.

It remains unknown, for example, whether other Asean members were consulted when the Philippines agreed to let the US expand its military bases, invoking Beijing’s displeasure – and possibly unintended consequences for Asean. Similarly, Malaysia and Singapore, which have a mutual defence pact with Britain and Australia, did not seem to have been consulted about the Aukus alliance.

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And, of course, China’s unilateral moves in the South China Sea and US freedom of navigation exercises there also undermine the Asean centrality they both claim to support.

Asean must strengthen the bloc’s unity through trade, education and cultural exchanges to foster a strong sense of interdependence and common prosperity, to counter the distrust between members.

Lessons can be drawn from the European Union, whose members also have historical animosities, but where initiatives such as freedom of movement have unlocked enormous economic opportunities for its peoples.

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While the EU is still not perfect and has seen a backlash with the rise of nationalism, it remains highly popular among the younger generation, who have benefited significantly, and there is firm support for a common European destiny.

For the EU, the ideological conditions are ripe to work towards strategic autonomy. For Asean, however, this remains wishful thinking.

As an Asean citizen from Malaysia, I can only stay visa-free in Singapore for up to 30 days. Likewise, Singapore nationals can only stay in Malaysia for 30 days wthout a visa. But most Western passport holders can stay for up to three months in either country. Asean members’ lack of preferential treatment for their citizens speaks volumes.

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The Asean Youth Fellowship supported by Singapore is a good initiative, providing a platform for young leaders across the region to address common challenges together. But it benefits no more than 50 young Asean leaders each year. This is insufficient to convince people at the grass-roots level that the Asean project can bring direct benefits and have a positive impact on their lives.

If Asean leaders truly believe centrality is needed to survive great power rivalry, they need to do more than pay it lip service, before it is too late. Only a strong and united Asean can sustain good internal relations and command respect from the great powers.

Chee Yik-wai is a Malaysia-based intercultural specialist and the co-founder of Crowdsukan focusing on sport diplomacy for peace and development