Meanwhile, Modi has been trying to enhance India’s hard power. Capital spending on defence has been increasing since he came to power. In the 2023-24 budget announced in February, India allocated 13 per cent more funds to the defence sector than in the previous year.

Some of India’s expenditure on defence has already borne fruit. This month, the navy put on display a new indigenous aircraft carrier, which should become fully operational later this year, in an exercise involving over 35 aircraft. Modi now hopes to sign a deal with the US to co-produce jet engines for Indian fighter aircraft.

Yet, despite this incremental progress, India’s military forces remain heavily overburdened. Notwithstanding increased spending, India’s defence sector has suffered a massive shortfall between funds allocated and the military’s needs over the past five years. There have long been concerns that the country’s naval fleet is reaching obsolescence and that the strength of the air force’s fighter squadrons is declining.

Recent events have also shown that troubles at home have the potential to further deplete India’s already thinly stretched military resources.

While the Modi government is reportedly pondering the withdrawal of these troops from Kashmir’s hinterland to be replaced by the Central Reserve Police Force, many remain concerned over the resulting potential for instability. Over the past few years, Kashmir has witnessed multiple episodes of violence against police officers, government employees and the Hindu minority.

There have also been sporadic outbreaks of violence in other parts of India in recent years, as communal tensions remain high between Hindus and Muslims. In March, communal violence broke out in multiple states during religious processions. Such episodes will keep India’s security apparatus on edge and serve to increase pressure on its military because of the threat of further deployment.

With Asia’s security landscape becoming potentially more volatile, these developments should worry both India and the US. Increased demand for security deployments to fight domestic problems could make New Delhi less willing to commit support to Washington against Beijing, including in the event of a potential conflict over Taiwan, the South China Sea or other flashpoints.

That likely scenario may also result in a diminished appetite in Washington for treating India as a key security partner in Asia. Although Modi is expected to be given a rapturous welcome in Washington this week, the US seems to have already recognised India’s limitations and is pivoting to other partners on security issues.

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If the US deems India’s domestic situation too unstable, it may also be less willing to share advanced defence technology with New Delhi – one of Modi’s key priorities in the relationship.

In recent years, there has been criticism in Washington of India’s internal politics, while New Delhi’s steadfast pursuit of a non-aligned foreign policy on various geopolitical issues has also come under scrutiny. If Washington believes India’s military is too distracted by threats at home, that may temper political support in the US Congress for a defence partnership with India.

For Modi, this ought to spark concern. Unless India is able to maintain stability at home and eschew divisive communal rhetoric in politics, New Delhi might find itself weakened and marginalised in Asia’s evolving geopolitical landscape.

Mohamed Zeeshan is a foreign affairs columnist and the author of Flying Blind: India’s Quest for Global Leadership