Can Brics, torch-bearer for the emerging world, challenge the established order?

South African leader Ramaphosa’s jarring remarks at a Paris-hosted summit reflect a growing view that emerging economies no longer depend on the West for solutions
Instead, hopes are being pinned on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and their coming summit. Will the bloc seize the opportunity or squander it?

Abishur Prakash

Published: 3:30am, 27 Jul 2023

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At the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, South Africa’s leader raised the heat on the West. With the gaze of the host, French President Emmanuel Macron, squarely on him, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his remarks at the closing ceremony to first address his Brazilian counterpart. He said with a grin: “President Lula, don’t worry. When we have the Brics meeting, the issue of currency is top on the agenda, so we are going to discuss it.”

South Africa, host of the Brics summit for emerging economies next month, has invited at least 60 leaders – but reportedly not Macron, who has made it clear he would like to attend. In the world of diplomacy, often scripted and cordial, Ramaphosa’s behaviour was akin to a slap at the Oscars.

Macron had been effectively and publicly sidelined. His objective, to have the West lead in areas such as sustainability and green finance, was derailed. Increasingly, nations no longer bet on the West to solve their problems, looking instead to Brics –Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Will the bloc seize the opportunity or squander it?

For a start, the grouping has to figure out how to operate in a sanctioned world, where the West is increasingly becoming off-limits to nations such as China and Russia. But with at least 22 heads of s–tate expected to attend its summit, and over 40 nations interested in joining Brics, including Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt and Argentina, the grouping could soon have new power and positioning.

Beyond a bandied-about “Brics currency” which may or may not materialise, a more immediate win would be to establish reserves for an extended BRICS+ group, for everything from semiconductors to agricultural goods – starting with oil.

The bloc could introduce BRICS+ oil reserves, which nations like Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran supply, and the rest of Brics can buy from, possibly in national currencies. This would be similar to Japan’s proposed global gas reserve system to deal with energy crises.

Creating BRICS+ reserves would help the group fend off targeted actions, such as the West cutting off trade with Russia. And by pricing their reserves differently, Brics nations could deal with global financial challenges, such as countries running short of dollars.

Then there are the curveballs, the biggest possibly being that France wants to attend the Brics summit. It’s a big geopolitical opportunity and dilemma. Is France genuinely interested in joining the meeting (and even, the bloc) due to rifts with America? If so, Brics countries should accept. Or is the French request a strategy to make Brics less “closed off” to the West? If so, the bloc should capitalise on it.

Either path requires the grouping to play a very strategic and calibrated game of geopolitics. This makes the French request a litmus test of whether the bloc is ready for the world stage. Does it know how to operate as a unified front? The West does.

Another curveball is that a new era of nuclear chess has begun. As Russia moves nuclear weapons to Belarus, and Poland asks to host Nato nukes, the brinkmanship is accelerating. Is the Brics group on board with its members moving nuclear weapons around? Or, with nukes spreading around the globe?

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The new nuclear status quo could prompt Brics (even Brics+) to develop ethical red lines. Countries that attempt to procure nuclear weapons might draw the wrath of Brics nations and attract trade restrictions, changing the role the grouping plays in the world.

The most pressing source of paralysis is growing friction between two key members: India and China. From border clashes and the expulsion of journalists to growing US-India defence ties, the room for India and China to put aside their differences is shrinking. And, unless this tension is overcome, the Brics bloc can achieve little. More divergence between India and China will result in India growing closer to the West, derailing anything Brics countries want to achieve.

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There are potential sources of paralysis too. Expanding the group, for instance, could backfire if new members such as Saudi Arabia and Iran collide within it. Will the BRICS+ then become another lame duck, like the G20 has been accused of being?

And yet the Brics summit could also turn out to be its first meeting of substance. If the group adapts successfully to the geopolitical minefield, it will have no competition. There is no other group like it. The G20 summit that India is hosting in September already seems limited in what it can achieve: an Indian official has reportedly said brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine is beyond the focus of the Group of 20.

For the Brics grouping, however, there are theoretically no limits, except for what members might impose out of inertia, weakness or distrust. That Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be at the summit in person, however, dims the flame. Is an arrest warrant from the West all it takes to push the summit off balance?

One reality seldom addressed or mentioned is that the Brics bloc carries the torch for the entire emerging world. Its success lays the foundation for everybody else, from Latin America and West Africa to Southeast Asia. But if the group, the hopeful representation of the world’s next superpowers, was unable to rise to the occasion, it would dash dreams in other capitals. For, if the Brics grouping cannot challenge the established order, who can?

Abishur Prakash is the CEO of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto