Latest figures cannot hide need for better Hong Kong population strategy
- With city’s birth rate hitting a new low and emigration continuing, a more holistic policy is called for despite an uptick in numbers
If the well-being of a society is rooted in healthy demographics, the latest turnaround of a worrying population decline suggests Hong Kong is, thankfully, recovering from the crippling blows of Covid-19 and social unrest. But with the birth rate hitting a new low and emigration wave yet to subside, it is too early to heave a sigh of relief.
A holistic strategy is called for if the city is to regain healthy development and growth.
According to provisional figures from the Census and Statistics Department, the population rose by 152,000, or 2.1 per cent, to 7,498,100 over the past year. There was a net inflow of 174,000, including 31,000 one-way permit holders from the mainland and returning residents.
The increase, which ended a downward trend since 2020, was attributed to intakes under various government admission schemes and returning residents following the reopening of borders early this year.
The government’s projection has raised many eyebrows. The population is expected to reach 8.19 million by mid-2046, with a net inflow of 890,000 one-way permit holders, 510,000 admissions under different talent and labour importation schemes, as well as 240,000 domestic helpers. The estimates are considerably higher than the actual inflow over the past years.
It will probably take longer to tell whether a return to normal life after the pandemic will be sufficient to reverse the declining population. The latest rise seems more like a post-Covid rebound, and whether there will be steady and sustainable growth as predicted remains to be seen.
This is particularly so when the latest survey by the Family Planning Association shows the city’s fertility rate has hit a new low, with the average number of children per woman plummeting from 1.3 in 2017 to just 0.9 last year. Meanwhile, the exodus spurred by shifting political and social landscapes continues.
The city is fortunate to have an edge in attracting talent from the mainland and elsewhere because of its strengths under the governance model of “one country, two systems”, but a shrinking population cannot be solved by just opening the door wider. Similarly, a high birth rate alone is not the answer.
The immediate and long-term needs warrant a multipronged approach.
Are Hong Kong’s talent schemes enough for steady population growth?
Given the complexities of the issues behind population woes, a lot more effort is required to address the challenges. In addition to continuing the hunt for global talent, there must be measures to create a better environment for people to stay and raise families.
It has already been more than a decade since former chief executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen placed population high on the government agenda. A more comprehensive population policy is long overdue.
