How a submerged Spratlys reef is emerging as a South China Sea flashpoint for China, the Philippines and US

Pressure is building on the US to step in at the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal with the Chinese increasingly brazen and Manila increasingly indignant
By being ambiguous, the US seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation or China to back down – increasing the risks of miscalculation

Mark J. Valencia

Published: 1:00am, 21 Aug 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

The stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at a China-Philippines disputed submerged reef in the South China Sea. On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon to prevent a Philippine government-chartered boat escorted by coastguard vessels from delivering supplies to troops on Second Thomas Shoal.

Relations were already rattled after a Chinese coastguard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coastguard vessel on a similar resupply mission in February. Although the latest incident is only part of a series of such military clashes between China and the Philippines, it stood out for its brazenness and the US response.

China’s egregious behaviour looked to be a message to the Philippines that it had gone too far in moving militarily closer to the US – and may have broken the back of the camel of restraint on all sides.

At the very least, it has brought China, the Philippines and the US – which has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines – closer to a military clash. Manila has said it would try again soon to resupply its troops, escorted by the coastguard and, some speculate, possibly even US assets. As nationalistic feelings rise in the Philippines and China, something has to give.

Some context is needed. In January 2013, the Philippines filed a complaint against China’s claims in the South China Sea under the dispute settlement mechanism of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). On July 12, 2016, the international arbitration panel ruled, among other things, that Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands is part of the Philippine continental shelf and within its exclusive economic zone.

Therefore, the Philippines has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources there – including a navy vessel it grounded on the shoal in 1999 to bolster its territorial claims. China has rejected The Hague’s ruling and vowed not to abide by it. Upping the ante, it is now renewing its demand that the Philippines remove the ship from the shoal.

A 2014 photo of the BRP Sierra Madre, a marooned transport ship that serves as a military outpost for Philippine marines on Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

Although The Hague’s decision clarified that no country can claim sovereignty over the submerged feature itself, many Filipinos see it as a sovereignty issue and so does China. Inaction could threaten the legitimacy of both governments. China has called for talks with the Philippines – but that may be too little, too late.

The US has issued many statements supporting the Philippines in the South China Sea and warning that China’s actions could invoke the US-Philippines mutual defence treaty. China has ignored these warnings. Its coastguard claims it fired the water cannon as a warning to prevent a collision and that its actions were “professional, restrained and justifiable”.

China has left no doubt that it claims the shoal and nearby waters on the basis of its historic nine-dash line claim. It insists it distinguishes between allowed humanitarian supplies such as food and water, and construction materials to strengthen the dilapidated grounded ship, which it does not allow.

Clearly, China’s claim over Second Thomas Shoal and its recent action there violate UNCLOS and are thus contrary to the international order the US leads and vows to enforce. Indeed, China’s actions are an “in your face” provocation to the Philippines, the US and international rules.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

The US pointed this out in its statement: “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of dangerous actions by the coastguard and maritime militia of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to obstruct an August 5 Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Firing water cannons and employing unsafe blocking manoeuvres, PRC ships interfered with the Philippines’ lawful exercise of high seas freedom of navigation and jeopardised the safety of the Philippine vessels and crew.”

This time, the US appears to be going a bit further in its support of the Philippines. According to a Nikkei report, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific fleet, said the US was prepared to help if China interferes with Manila’s efforts to resupply troops at Second Thomas Shoal. “We stand ready to come to the Philippines’ assistance, in their exercise of their sovereign rights,” he said.

The Philippines may indeed ask the US to get involved militarily in a future incident. And, of course, the US has wiggle room under the mutual defence treaty in defining what constitutes an “armed attack” on a Philippine “government vessel”, and what US action is then required. But if it prevaricates after its warnings in this incident, it will seem a toothless tiger.

02:05

US and Philippines launch ‘biggest ever’ joint marine exercises near disputed waters

Push is coming to shove. The Philippines has vowed to continue to send supply ships to Second Thomas Shoal, and is planning joint patrols with the US later this year, the first of which may well focus on Second Thomas Shoal.

The US appears to have brought itself to the brink and left the next move in the hands of the Philippines and China. Warmongers are calling for America to back up its words with action. Ambiguity can be a deterrent but it also carries risks of miscalculation.

Ironically, by being ambiguous, the US may have encouraged the Philippine military to up the ante. It seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation, or if it does, on China to back down because of the US threat.

It is time for the US to clarify to the Philippine government in no uncertain terms that if it provokes China into an armed clash, it may be on its own. Meanwhile, risks of a showdown at Second Thomas Shoal continue to rise.

Mark J. Valencia is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance