Several Southeast Asian leaders were feted by Russian President Vladimir Putin at last week’s Belt and Road Forum in Beijing as part of his pivot to Asia, elevating the importance of the region’s political centrality and economic vitality to Russia’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
This was Putin’s second official foreign trip since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him. To the surprise of many observers, his main scheduled meetings were dedicated to Southeast Asian leaders, including new Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Vietnam’s recently appointed President Vo Van Thuong and Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith. Putin also had an unscheduled informal discussion with Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo.
Moscow sees Thailand as important in its push to develop deeper diplomatic ties with Southeast Asia, though commerce was the focus of the discussion last week. The meeting between Putin and Thavisin concentrated on their commitment to increase bilateral trade, which fell sharply last year with the start of the Ukraine war but has since shown tentative signs of revival.
About a third of Thailand’s exports to Russia are cars, automotive parts and machinery, among other high value-added products. Thailand also exports large volumes of processed commodities to Russia, including refined oil, seafood and various agricultural products. There is much potential for Thailand’s industrial and agricultural products to replace the Western brands removed from the Russian market.
Putin and Thavisin have resolved to boost trade between their countries to US$10 billion a year, a target to be supported by a joint commission on economic cooperation. Thailand is also negotiating a free-trade agreement with the Russian-founded Eurasian Economic Union.
The Land of Smiles has proven popular with Russian tourists, too, attracting nearly 1 million so far this year, and the country plans to boost Russian arrivals to 2 million next year. To support this, Putin and Thavisin agreed to increase flights between Russia and Thailand. The Thai authorities have also tripled the length of visa-free stays for Russians to 90 days. Among those arriving soon may well be Putin himself, whom Thavisin has invited for a state visit.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and Russian President Vladimir Putin greet each other before their meeting on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on October 17. Photo: AP
Putin’s meeting with Vietnam’s president ran along similar lines. The men spoke about boosting bilateral trade, noting the precipitous decline since the Ukraine conflict broke out last year and the recent, gradual pickup. Russia and Vietnam also plan to reach US$10 billion in bilateral trade, by 2025.
To hit this target, both sides are setting up a commission to focus on sector-based working groups to develop projects in energy, manufacturing, finance, transport and digitalisation. In particular, Truong noted Russia’s role in supporting the creation of Vietnam’s oil and gas sector decades ago. Both governments will also collaborate on education, cultural and science-based programmes, including the joint development of artificial intelligence.
Putin and Thuong referred to their countries’ long history of close relations, which date back to the Soviet Union and its support for Hanoi in the Vietnam war. More recently, Vietnam was the first country to conclude a free-trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Both the Russian and Vietnamese governments also have a comprehensive strategic partnership, evolving and harmonising their diplomatic, economic, military and other key ties.
At the meeting, Thuong affirmed that Russia was a top foreign policy priority for Vietnam and considered it an imperative for Hanoi to continue its substantive and effective relations with Moscow. While no date has been set, Truong has also invited Putin to make a state visit to Vietnam.
Vietnam’s President Vo Van Thuong shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on October 17. Photo: Reuters
Like with Thailand and Vietnam, boosting trade and business was also the main agenda of Putin’s meeting with the Laotian president – though Russia’s volume of commerce with the Southeast Asian economy is considerably smaller than with the other two.
There was possibly a moment of diplomatic awkwardness as Putin referred to Sisoulith’s absence from his flagship Indo-Pacific business event, the Eastern Economic Forum, in Vladivostok last month. Sisoulith, who had sent Vice-President Pany Yathotou to the forum because he was in Cuba, probably last met Putin in 2017 in Singapore, he said.
Putin, however, was also quick to note that the two men were university students at roughly the same time in Leningrad, and called Sisoulith “a reliable friend”.
03:48
Security tight in Chinese capital as foreign leaders arrive for Belt and Road Forum in Beijing
Security tight in Chinese capital as foreign leaders arrive for Belt and Road Forum in Beijing
For these Asean members and others in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Western sanctions have significantly inflated the cost of shipping goods to Russia, even as payment transfers have been crippled by the removal of Russia from the Swift financial messaging system.
Still, more ways of doing business with Russia are emerging for Southeast Asian exporters. Goods are increasingly being shipped to the Russian port of Vladivostok on the Pacific coast, in addition to the traditional sea routes to its main commercial ports on the Black Sea and Baltic Sea. Most Russian importers have also set up offshore bank accounts with international banks and switched to alternative payment systems.
Despite Western efforts to oppose Russia, including unprecedented sanctions to isolate it economically and diplomatically, many countries in the Global South, including those in Asean, continue to expand and deepen their relations with Moscow.
China’s Belt and Road Forum was attended by just one Western leader, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who also met Putin. In a way, the overwhelming absence of Western leaders made the Beijing forum an effective strategic platform for Putin to meet several Southeast Asian heads of state – who might have been distracted if more Western leaders had turned up.
Bob Savic is head of international trade at the Global Policy Institute in London, UK and a Visiting Professor with the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute
