Opinion polls predicted Prabowo Subianto’s decisive victory in Indonesia’s presidential election at his third attempt. But that did not detract from global interest in the outcome for leadership of the world’s third-biggest democracy and Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.
Prabowo finally proved his mettle with voters, despite a past of human-rights abuses. He vowed continuity, having twice lost elections to Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, who will be retiring in October and is riding high on approval ratings of 80 per cent.
Jokowi’s stance on close Belt and Road relations with China, one of Indonesia’s biggest investors, and the country’s long-held stance on non-aligned neutrality are key pillars of foreign policy to be welcomed in a polarised world fraught with geopolitical tensions.
In terms of continuity, the reality is that Prabowo was not the only one on his election ticket. Incumbent Jokowi was there, too, in a sense because his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, was Prabowo’s running mate and vice-presidential candidate, ensuring his father’s influence.
While continuity can be expected, there are some unknowns. Prabowo is more nationalistic that his predecessor. It remains to be seen whether that rears its head. But it is hard to see him changing course when it comes to Chinese investment.
Examples over the last decade include the energy sector, such as hydroelectric projects, and industrial parks focused on the nickel and related industry.
Prabowo was once banned by the United States, Australia and parts of Europe because of his human-rights record. He received exemptions when Jokowi made him defence minister, a role in which he has become more of a known quantity.
But there are those who question his past in the military, including his role under father-in-law and former dictator Suharto in anti-Chinese riots in the wake of the Asia financial crisis in 1998, and with a special forces unit accused of atrocities against separatists in East Timor in the 1980s.
It cannot be forgotten, but more than half the voters are aged below 40 with few able to recollect these past tragedies, and others, including Indonesian Chinese, have taken a pragmatic stance and moved on.
The campaign also exposed division over Widodo’s decade of development-oriented leadership. Praise for political and economic stability was tempered by criticism of his rights record. Economic growth averaged 5 per cent. But critics say rights and democracy regressed, undoing some of the progress since the late 1990s.
It is good that Indonesia has voted for continuity and stability. In that respect Prabowo can be expected to continue Indonesia’s good relations with China and the region under the stance of neutrality, which began with the Bandung conference of Asian and African nations in the 1950s that gave birth to the Non-Aligned Movement.