Prabowo’s election opens a new chapter in ties with China
- The stars could be aligned for Jakarta and Beijing to maintain good relations as the fundamentals are strong. Xi Jinping now wants the new Indonesian president to work together with China for the benefit of both nations and for regional security
It is more than a month since Prabowo Subianto easily won Indonesia’s presidential election according to an unofficial count. So the announcement of official confirmation by the country’s election commission might have been expected to be somewhat of an anticlimax.
But it was far from a mere formality thanks to congratulatory messages to the next leader of the world’s third-biggest democracy and Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Chief among the well-wishers was President Xi Jinping, who hailed the two countries’ friendly ties and looked forward to the “construction of a community with a shared future”.
Describing China and Indonesia as good neighbours for a long time, Xi said he attached great importance to the development of bilateral relations and looked forward to working together with Prabowo.
This is important, coming after speculation whether the president-elect would maintain outgoing leader Joko Widodo’s economic cooperation with China under the stance of neutrality.
Indonesia’s Prabowo congratulated by China’s Xi, US’ Blinken over poll victory
The two sides having opened a new chapter in bilateral relations, Xi now wants Prabowo to work together with China for the benefit of the two peoples and for the sake of regional security.
In that regard China needs Indonesia not just for its role in the Belt and Road Initiative but as a key regional market and business partner.
Political trust and mutual understanding are paramount to tapping the full potential of the bilateral relationship.
Indonesian politics tends to fall into one of two camps – nationalist and “developmentalist”. Prabowo belongs to the latter, which holds that economic policies should raise living standards.
He is therefore unlikely to depart very far from Widodo’s agenda in terms of infrastructure, development and attracting foreign investment. As for cooperation with China, it seems unlikely to be challenged.
It is worth recalling that questions over Prabowo’s human rights record during anti-China riots in 1998 led to him being sanctioned and refused entry by the United States for a time.
But as Widodo’s defence minister he has been seen to lean towards the United States and the past was put further behind him by a congratulatory message from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the same time as Xi’s.
That said, Prabowo also appears a pragmatist who recognises China’s reach and power in the region.
China not expected to let past overshadow ties with Indonesia’s new leader
The stars could be aligned for Jakarta and Beijing to maintain good relations, with just two obvious issues that potentially could cause tension.
One would be more incursions by Chinese fishermen around Indonesia’s Natuna Islands. The other arises from Chinese investment in the nickel industry where there is unrest over pay and conditions at processing plants.
Such irritants apart, relations should be stable because the fundamentals are strong.
