India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the International Day of Yoga in front of Mysore Palace on June 21. Observers are questioning his balancing act. Photo: AFP
Opinion
The View
by Sameed Basha
The View
by Sameed Basha
India’s Ukraine war stance is starting to look less like neutrality and more like a pro-Russia position
The case of Russian oil circumventing US sanctions via an Indian port has renewed attention to India’s rising Russian oil imports and raised doubts about its neutral stance
India has its own geopolitical calculations but US allies may question the special treatment granted to New Delhi, which could fragment the front against Russia
Economic sanctions will not deter Russia from continuing its war in Ukraine, as long as back-door economic deals, such as those involving crude oil exports, continue to prop up its war efforts. The US Treasury Department told India that through high-seas transfers, Russian crude oil was taken to a port in the Indian state of Gujarat, where it was refined and then shipped to New York.
The transfers violate the sanctions on Russian-origin energy products. Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Michael Patra has explained how the US sanctions were bypassed: “The refined output was put back on that ship and it set sail without a destination. In the mid-seas it received the destination so it reached its course, went to New York.”
American concern about the case aside, from the outset, India has defied the efforts spearheaded by the United States to bring justice to the people of Ukraine. New Delhi has abstained from voting on motions against Russia’s invasion in the UN Security Council and General Assembly.
Unlike many other democracies, India has maintained relations by walking a tightrope of neutrality, often insisting it does so to look after its interests. Still, observers are calling it what it is: a quiet pro-Moscow position.
Russian oil imports now comprise nearly a fifth of India’s total imports. In June, India’s oil imports from Russia increased by 15.5 per cent compared to May, while those from the traditional sources of Iraq and Saudi Arabia dropped by 10.5 per cent and 13.5 per cent respectively.
05:58
Why India is walking a diplomatic tightrope over Ukraine-Russia crisis
Why India is walking a diplomatic tightrope over Ukraine-Russia crisis
Last month, India overtook China as the biggest buyer of Russian oil despite importing 7.3 per cent less than in June, shifting some buying back to Saudi Arabia, perhaps in an attempt to quieten global condemnation.
India has a complex history with the United States, first choosing to be non-aligned and then involving itself with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The Soviet Union used its Security Council veto power or abstained from voting on UN resolutions in support of India at least six times, especially on the issue of Kashmir.
Despite strong opposition from Washington, India went ahead with a deal to acquire the S-400 missile defence system from Russia and more than 60-70 per cent of Indian armed forces still use Russian-origin weapons.
In addition, India is part of China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and a vital member of the BRICS grouping (comprising Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa) – forums in which the dominance of the US dollar and the current international order are being questioned.
India describes relations with the US in the context of Russia as strategic ambivalence. But its lack of diplomatic transparency, and now the incident involving the transshipment of Russian crude oil, suggest an intention to stay soft on Russia.
India’s stance also stems from its fear of facing a two-front war with a far more technologically advanced China and a nuclear-armed Pakistan, a conflict it will lose. It looks towards Russia as a time-tested ally, a relationship it values for its diplomatic, economic and military support over the years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum at Russky Island in Vladivostok, Russia, on September 4, 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE
Hoping to pull India away from Russia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed a desire for the US to be India’s “partner of choice” in all areas.
Washington is hedging its bets with India in the hope of propping it up against China. India is central to strategic planning in the Indo-Pacific. The country has been made a part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue due to its expansive coastline and has signed a flurry of agreements with the US, such as the 2016 Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, 2018 Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, and 2020 Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, which allow secure military communication and access to sensitive American hardware.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have increasingly converging interests in light of US interventions in Ukraine and Taiwan, and a two-front (cold) war is taking shape.
01:29
Putin calls Pelosi an ‘irresponsible politician’ as he denounces US Speaker’s recent Taiwan visit
Putin calls Pelosi an ‘irresponsible politician’ as he denounces US Speaker’s recent Taiwan visit
Double-dipping by strategic partners such as India, whereby self-interest is placed above shared democratic principles, undermines Western efforts to support Ukraine. US allies may question the special treatment granted to India, which may end up fragmenting the stance against Russia, playing right into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The US might fear that if it reprimands India, New Delhi would backtrack on its geostrategic agreements. This theory does not hold as long as China challenges US supremacy and India’s contested borders in the north face imminent threat. India will always fall in line, knowing very well it cannot face up to China, especially after the 2020 setbacks in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh.
Some among the Indian public appear to still cherish relations with Russia, with hashtags such as #IStandWithPutin and #istandwithrussia trending at the time of the Ukraine invasion. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that “every barrel of Russian crude that India gets has a good portion of Ukrainian blood in it”.
How long India can choose to stand with its interests and risk coming down on the wrong side of history is still to be determined.
Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia
