South China Morning Post
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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Opinion
Asma Khalid
Asma Khalid

What Pakistan’s political changes mean for China, the US and India

  • With Imran Khan out of the picture, the coalition government is set to maintain strong relations with China, while ties with the US should continue to stabilise
  • The new political landscape could also pave the way for meaningful dialogue with India, leading to warmer relations
Asma Khalid
Asma Khalid
Why you can trust SCMP
On March 3, Shehbaz Sharif was elected as Pakistan’s new prime minister. A member of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), he was a joint candidate of an eight-party coalition for the post.
The general election, held on February 8, resulted in a split mandate, with no single party securing a simple majority to form a government. Candidates backed by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, won 93 seats, followed by the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) with 75 and 54 seats respectively.

The PML-N reached out to the PPP to form a coalition government. These negotiations resulted in an understanding that Sharif would be their joint candidate for prime minister with Asif Ali Zardari – – a former president and the husband of the late prime minister Benazir Bhutto – for president.

So just how will Pakistan’s political changes affect its foreign policy?

Zardari is likely to try to influence the country’s foreign – and domestic security and economic – policies in an effort to pave the way in the next general election for his son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, to become prime minister.

If Bilawal assumes the role of foreign minister, as previously when he cultivated warm relations with China, it could enhance alignment between the two parties in foreign policy decisions.

04:22

Pakistan’s history of jailed leaders

Pakistan’s history of jailed leaders
Pakistan has an enduring partnership with its “all weather” ally China. Historically centred on military and strategic collaboration, the relationship recently gained traction economically, notably with the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The critical defence and strategic facets of this partnership have persisted throughout changes in Pakistan’s government, terrorist incidents targeting Chinese workers and the economic slowdown in both nations – and are likely to continue to do so. Notably, over half of China’s arms and defence technology exports from 2018 to 2022 went to Pakistan.
Last November, the countries held their largest-ever naval exercise during the third annual edition of Sea Guardian, which focuses on sharing information, joint patrols and enhancing interoperability in the Indian Ocean. China’s military diplomacy with Pakistan is seen as important and analysts have put it on a par with its strategic partnership with Russia.
Cooperation between Pakistan and China in renewable energy is also expanding. A year ago, Pakistan launched a 1,100-megawatt nuclear power plant financed by China in Karachi amid a nationwide energy crisis. Months later, in July, Pakistan inaugurated a 1,200MW Chinese-designed nuclear energy project in Punjab. Analysts foresee China leveraging its successful civil nuclear cooperation with Pakistan to export nuclear power and technology globally.

01:36

China-funded hydropower station set to sharply reduce Pakistan’s carbon emissions

China-funded hydropower station set to sharply reduce Pakistan’s carbon emissions

While economic uncertainties may linger due to political, economic and security instability, the strategic and military dimensions of Pakistan’s relationship with China are expected to stay strong.

Pakistan’s relationship with the United States appears to be stabilising around modest security cooperation and trade. Washington seems to have recognised the importance of maintaining ties with Pakistan amid its strategic rivalry with China. The removal of Khan’s administration, which had taken an increasingly anti-US stance, is set to improve relations.

Islamabad sees value in maintaining positive ties, given the leverage the US holds in international institutions to influence Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic interests.

Some analysts see the slowdown in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project as a result of Washington’s influence. But the delays are more closely linked to Pakistan’s financial and security challenges, as well as China’s domestic economic issues, rather than any shift in the Sino-Pakistan strategic understanding.

Why Pakistan’s ‘unwieldy’ new coalition won’t faze China and the IMF

While Islamabad participates in China-led economic and security structures, it also engages in just enough cooperation with the US to avoid adverse consequences. Despite expanding strategic cooperation with Beijing, Pakistan continues to project its military and strategic significance to the US. These developments are not mutually exclusive.

For Pakistan, relations with its immediate neighbour India do not seem a top priority for now. Besides, any move to improve fraught ties would require commitment and effort from both political and military sides. Indeed, neither country sees a compelling need to enhance their relationship, seemingly settled on maintaining the 2021 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control in Kashmir.

Encouragingly, the issue of terrorism, which has historically strained relations between the two nations, appears to be decreasing in intensity. While there may still be sporadic incidents involving Kashmir separatists targeting Indian security forces, it is increasingly challenging for India to attribute these actions directly to Pakistan.

Indian attempts at cross-border raids in response to such incidents have produced negative outcomes, highlighting the impracticality of this approach. The long-term solution to the Kashmir issue lies in addressing the political, economic and civil rights of the Kashmiris and ending state-led oppression.

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Despite the apparent status quo, however, the animosity and distrust between India and Pakistan are detrimental to both countries, especially considering their nuclear capabilities.

There is a glimmer of hope that both nations can find the space to build trust and mitigate the acrimony. With a coalition government in Pakistan, which typically signifies a weaker but also more moderate administration, there is an opportunity for meaningful dialogue with India.

With a prime minister and president both enjoying the support of the army establishment, Pakistan could begin to look at constructively engaging with India. With hope, this new political landscape could pave the way for more neighbourly relations, with both sides sharing the political credit for a new and friendlier era.

Asma Khalid is an independent researcher and former visiting fellow at the Stimson Center

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