A President Trump in Year of the Dragon may just put out flames of war

Neither Biden nor Trump is the US leader the world needs. But Trump is more likely to seek a detente with China, Russia and perhaps even North Korea, bringing the world back from the brink

Anthony Rowley

Published: 5:30am, 11 Feb 2024

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The proverbial leopard may never change its spots but the zodiacal dragon may shed its scales and douse its fire in the Lunar New Year. What this means in less cryptic terms is that things might just turn out better than expected for the world this year.

Once the (supposedly) docile zodiacal Rabbit quits the stage to make way for a (reputedly) fiery Dragon, things might not get as hot as some fear. Much depends on possible changes in US leadership and the global consequences.

It may be nominally an “American” election being held in November but, in reality, it is more of a global contest. We are a long way from achieving world government yet, so much of global consequence flows from who gets to govern the United States, which is of universal importance.

With Donald Trump having secured victory in the early battles for the Republican Party nomination, many commentators see this as a potential disaster. But such an outcome could prove positive for those who care about the world’s welfare, or even survival.

Trump was a chump in many ways during his presidency, not least with regard to his administration’s economic policies. But at least he did not go around seemingly intent on making enemies of other world leaders to the extent that his successor, Joe Biden, has done.

The intention here is not to attempt a postmortem examination of the respective policies of the two men but to consider a “what if” scenario under which Trump returns to power despite the risk of being cast into jail or bankrupted by the financial damages awarded by US courts.

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It’s worth spending a little time thinking about this because the consequences of even a partial rapprochement between the US and China, the US and Russia, and even the US and North Korea, are potentially enormous and possibly game-changing.

Game-changing on the war front because they imply a reduction in tensions over Taiwan, a ceasefire or armistice in Ukraine with Nato’s role there resolved, a possible breakthrough on North Korea relations and a new approach in Gaza.

Game-changing on the economic front, too, because they imply a scaling back of the Biden administration’s obsession with national security issues and the reshoring or “friendshoring” of production, in favour of a more simple (maybe simplistic) “Trump tariff” regime.

Game-changing also on the psychological and confidence front, given many people’s fears that we may be on the brink of a world war with seemingly implacable enemies facing one another from Washington, Beijing, Pyongyang and elsewhere.

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It is absurd and grotesquely irresponsible that things have been allowed to come to pass – not so much to “drift” to this point as be pushed by the spurious alliances of supposedly like-minded powers formed in pursuit of defensive or protectionist aims.

Trump was a rogue in office, well before the Capitol Hill assault and his second impeachment one week before his term ended in 2021. His behaviour at times ranged from erratic to outrageous and from irreverent to outright offensive but he did not leave America and the world on the brink of war.

For all that Biden appears to be a decent and “regular guy” next to Trump, the often self-righteous or puritanical nature of his administration in proclaiming the virtues of doing things “the American way” has alienated other leaders to the point of stirring conflict.

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Not everyone outside America (nor even some within the US) shares the American dream – and this goes for many in Asia – and they have no desire to be pressured into “for us or against us” alliances or coalitions with Washington – at least not on all issues.

Trump sometimes gave the impression that his chief foreign policy concern was to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to grant him permission for new Trump Hotels to be built in Moscow or Beijing respectively – or even asking Kim Jong-un for similar favours in Pyongyang.

His critics (including many in the media) seemed to be scandalised by such goings on yet they appear less scandalised now (or less vocal at least) when a president seems willing to commit his nation to rhetorical or actual belligerence that may cost human lives.

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It is not necessary to extol the “virtues” or attack the vices of a new Trump presidency to question what might happen if Biden were returned to power for a second term. Global tensions have ratcheted up so far during his first term as to bode distinctly ill on that score.

Save for the possibility of another and superior presidential candidate (neither Biden nor Trump) appearing deus-ex-machina-like in time for the US primaries, it will be a contest between imperfect candidates. That is not what a dangerously divided world facing unparalleled challenges needs.

The point is that we should not be looking only to the US for salvation. We do not have anything approaching world government and even our imperfect multilateral organisations are under attack. So the least we should strive for is an oligarchy ruling in concert – not perfect, but no worse than a single and deficient world power.

Maybe we will need to wait for the Year of the Snake in 2025. Snakes are said to be graceful, calm, composed and expressive. They move forward according to plan and with determination. They are strong in sensibility and intellect. Sounds like just what we need.

Anthony Rowley is a veteran journalist specialising in Asian economic and financial affairs