Whirlwind round of US diplomacy leaves China relations in unknown territory

From hosting Asean leaders and visiting Asia, to the Quad meeting and Indo-Pacific economic strategy, Biden’s message is clear: the US is seeking to contain China
Stung into action, Beijing is rolling out its own countermeasures, including a global security initiative

Nong Hong

Published: 1:30am, 31 May 2022

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his long-delayed policy speech last Thursday, outlining America’s China policy by describing Beijing as “the most serious long-term challenge to the international order”.

This followed a wider effort to calm Beijing over President Joe Biden’s comment that the United States would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan against attack, and is the latest move in the administration’s months-long campaign to counter China. It seems to signal that deteriorating US-China relations will not improve any time soon.

The Biden administration has had a busy global agenda this month. Washington hosted Asean leaders for a special summit, then Biden travelled to South Korea and Japan for bilateral meetings, attended the second Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit, and announced that 12 countries were joining America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework – a new pillar in the strategy to counter Beijing.

The May 12-13 meeting with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was seen as a US move to counter China’s close relations with Asian states and expanded regional influence.

Jacob Stokes, from the Centre for a New American Security, argued that China’s assertiveness, its mixed record on the Belt and Road Initiative, economic slowdown and pandemic handling had created an opportunity for Washington to regain its momentum with Asean and offer attractive alternatives.

Beijing did not view the US-Asean summit positively and expressed its discontent over what it sees as US political and economic interference.

02:09

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says China is undermining global order

A central theme of Biden’s May 20-23 Asia trip was to tighten alliances in the Pacific, to counter China’s influence. The president carried a clear message, warning Beijing not to help blunt global sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. In Japan, Biden signalled a more confrontational approach to China, including on Taiwan.

His remark that the US would defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese attack seemed to deviate from long-standing policy.

Both the White House and Pentagon quickly clarified that there was no policy change; Biden’s comments simply reiterated a pledge made through a 1979 law that the US would provide Taiwan with the military means for self-defence.

03:09

US President Joe Biden says US military will defend Taiwan if attacked

Still, Biden’s words resonated powerfully and prompted an international reaction. No matter how the US tries to remedy things, it cannot cover up the policy shift, albeit potentially small, from strategic ambiguity towards strategic clarity.

After Biden met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, they released a formal statement asking that China “contribute to arrangements that reduce nuclear risks, increase transparency, and advance nuclear disarmament”, among other requests for temperance.

This comes after China denounced the Aukus security alliance between the US, Britain and Australia as irresponsible since the US was sharing its submarine technology for the first time in 60 years, having previously only shared it with Britain.

00:58

‘We are against a Cold War between China and the US’: China Foreign Ministry

While the Quad joint leaders’ statement did not mention China by name, the message of containing and countering China was clear. It expressed concern about any coercive, provocative or unilateral action that sought to change the Indo-Pacific status quo, including the militarisation of disputed features, which Beijing sees as aimed at itself.

Maritime cooperation also featured prominently in the joint statement. This came after Washington announced US$60 million in funding for a regional maritime programme with Asean, most of which will be led by the US Coast Guard, including the deployment of personnel and equipment, combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, and help with equipment and staff training. This indicates the US Coast Guard will become more involved in the South China Sea’s security.

The four Quad leaders also committed to deepening infrastructure cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, including addressing debt issues and extending more than US$50 billion in aid and investment over the next five years. Additionally, the meeting discussed more help for Pacific island nations, where China’s influence has recently grown.

00:54

Biden to launch ambitious economic initiative for Indo-Pacific on Asia tour, White House says

Last, and arguably most anticipated on Biden’s Asia visit, the US unveiled the 13-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) – the administration’s answer to questions about America’s economic commitment to the region.

IPEF, the most significant effort by Washington to engage Asia on economic matters following Donald Trump’s 2017 decision to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, is designed to de-emphasise China’s role in Asian and transpacific supply chains.

This series of actions to counter China has, naturally, invited criticism from Beijing, and some recent foreign policy moves could be viewed as countermeasures.

For example, China is negotiating security deals with two more Pacific nations following its agreement with the Solomon Islands last month. Beijing reportedly wants 10 small Pacific nations to endorse a sweeping agreement addressing everything from security to fisheries.

Beijing has also mentioned the possibility of setting up a free trade area with Pacific nations – as Foreign Minister Wang Yi and a 20-person delegation began a visit to the region last week.

03:15

Chinese foreign minister starts Pacific tour, offering security and free trade pacts

China, which has been unable to effectively push back against America’s global network of alliances and its role as a security guarantor, is now rolling out its own “Global Security Initiative”.

This idea, proposed by President Xi Jinping at the Boao Forum for Asia last month, aims to “build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture” and “reject the Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation”.

Ultimately, it can be seen as Beijing’s strategy to draw together its various efforts to win global friends while resisting US attempts to target China through groups like the Quad and Aukus.

Blinken’s policy speech reflected Biden’s hardline message to China, one that the administration has held since the president’s inauguration.

However, Blinken did leave some room for hope by saying the US would engage constructively with China on climate change, global food security, and the Iran and North Korea nuclear programmes as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. Clearly, this whirlwind of diplomacy leaves US-China relations in new and unknown territory.

Nong Hong, PhD, is executive director and senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies (US)