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In this issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look back at recent elections in the likes of Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia following a busy time for politics in Southeast Asia in recent weeks. Photo: EPA-EFE

Economy

Global Impact: Southeast Asian politics provide plenty of drama and intrigue, but who are the real winners?

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this issue, we look back at recent elections in the likes of Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia following a busy time for politics in Southeast Asia in recent weeks

Global Impact

Bhavan Jaipragas

Published: 2:00pm, 21 Aug 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now!

The summer of 2023 is not yet over, but it has already cemented itself as one of the more pulsating periods of recent times as far as Southeast Asian politics is concerned.

From Cambodia to Thailand, Malaysia, and even the usually staid Singapore – all countries with China as their biggest trading partner – there has been some degree of political drama.

In Thailand, the youth-centric Move Forward Party was the undoubted winner of the May 14 election, after the public warmed to its messages on structural reforms and social equality.

Yet, three months on, the party has not been able to form a new government as it does not have the support of the legislature’s crucial upper house, which is stacked with members of the royalist establishment ardently opposed to it.

03:05

Symbol of betrayal? How chocolate-mint drink fell victim to Thailand’s political divide

What happens next is anybody’s guess. Some have suggested that the kingdom could see the return of the exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as a result of political horse trading by his Pheu Thai party – the election runners-up – and the election’s losers, the pro-establishment parties.

The political patriarch made plans to return to the country, but upon warnings from royalists that he may face arrest upon arrival, he has changed his tune, saying he would only return when the situation is stable.

In neighbouring Cambodia, the party controlled by Hun Sen won a landslide victory in July after he banned the opposition and dismantled much of the country’s free media. After holding on to power for nearly four decades, his son Hun Manet, 45, is now poised to succeed him as prime minister.

Political analysts told the Post the younger leader could try to diversify Cambodia’s China-centric economic ties and reduce its debt burden to Beijing.

03:19

Thai election runners-up announce fresh coalition with government-aligned party

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last weekend that Beijing was committed to enhancing bilateral ties, and slammed “noise made by some external forces” about the conduct of the July polls – widely viewed by international observers as unfair.

It is expected that Hun Manet’s cabinet will be stacked with princelings to placate senior officials who may be tempted to jockey for power under the new leader, analysts say.

Down south in Malaysia, regional elections held last weekend were free and fair – and the results spelled trouble for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, a long-time democracy campaigner.

The elections for state assembly seats in six of the country’s 13 states returned a status quo, with his ruling alliance retaining the wealthy states of Selangor and Penang, as well as Negeri Sembilan, while the Islamist Perikatan Nasional retained its control of the Malay-Muslim heartland states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

02:01

Singapore’s political scandal deepens as 2 MPs resign amid separate high-profile corruption probe

Worrying observers was the sheer scale of gains made by the Perikatan Nasional bloc spearheaded by the Pas party: it won 60 per cent of the total number of seats up for grabs in the polls.

In postmortems, commentators suggest Anwar had erred by seeking to appease hardline religious conservatives since coming to power last November, eroding support from his middle-ground base. For now, Anwar and his allies seem to be proceeding on a business-as-usual mode, saying the country needed to focus on the economy after the polls.

Neighbouring Singapore has never had the kind of roller coaster politics of its neighbours, but the summer of 2023 will be one to forget for the long-ruling People’s Action Party.

It has been roiled by two major scandals, with Transport Minister S. Iswaran arrested in July following a corruption probe, while the former parliamentary speaker and an MP resigned in the same month over an extramarital affair.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has sought to emphasise that the party’s high standards of probity did not immunise it from setbacks from time to time, and has pledged to ensure citizens retain trust in the ruling party.

Stay tuned to see how that turns out.

60-Second Catch-up

Indonesia’s Jokowi touts legacy ahead of election, in swansong speech ‘justifying his presidency’

Results a ‘huge blow’ for PM Anwar Ibrahim despite apparent status quo, analysts say

Opinion: To beat Malaysia’s ‘green wave’, Anwar’s unity government must do more for struggling Malays

Cambodia’s Hun Manet likely to lead cabinet of ‘princelings’, in move of ‘stability over democracy’

Singapore’s PM Lee Hsien Loong on MPs’ affair: ‘I should have forced issue sooner’

Opinion: Will China be ‘offended’ by Asean openly backing heightened US security presence in the region? Not really

Malaysia court drops abuse of power charges against former PM Muhyiddin Yassin

Deep dives

China pledges support for Cambodia’s changing of the guard in meeting with Hun Sen and son

Top Chinese diplomat says Beijing firmly supports Cambodia to safeguard national interests and national dignity and a greater role on world and regional stages
Incoming PM Hun Manet pledges to promote agriculture, manufacturing, economic and trade investment to strengthen coordination with China

China is willing to work with Cambodia’s new government to build close and high-quality ties, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with the country’s next leader, Hun Manet on Sunday.

Wang congratulated the ruling Cambodian People’s Party over its “landslide victory” in the country’s general election last month, according to a statement from China’s foreign ministry.

‘Extreme’ US-China rivalry could be ‘disastrous’ for global economy: Singapore’s Lawrence Wong

Singapore’s No 2 leader says various Western tech curbs are unlikely to ‘keep China down’
But he warned that the ‘collateral damage’ from financial measures amid the US-China economic row was unknown

The existing state of “extreme competition” between the United States and China, with the mutual use of economic punitive measures, could be “disastrous” for the global economy, Singapore’s No 2 leader Lawrence Wong warned on Monday.

In a wide-ranging dialogue session, Deputy Prime Minister Wong said he believed that the West’s various restrictions targeting Beijing’s access to cutting-edge technologies were unlikely to “keep China down”.

What next for Cambodia’s US ties, China trade after Hun Sen’s certain poll win?

Washington’s distrust of Hun Sen and concerns about a possible Chinese military presence in Cambodia have affected attempts to improve ties
While Cambodia has been trying to diversify its China-centric economic ties, its friendship with Beijing remains ‘unrivalled’, one analyst notes

The uncontested re-election of Cambodia’s leader this month is unlikely to boost its profile with Western nations, analysts say, but it might be an opportunity for Phnom Penh to diversify its China-centric economic ties and reduce its debt burden to Beijing.

On July 23, Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) are tipped to win 92 per cent of the 125 seats contested in the election, a walkover that will extend his long-time rule.

Pita, politics and policies: how the current political impasse is impacting Thailand’s property market

Real estate stakeholders are expected to lobby the new government to implement measures to boost the market, analysts say
Some 50,000 flats are likely to be launched this year in Thailand, slightly more than the 48,700 units last year, according to CBRE

Thailand’s political deadlock is turning potential homebuyers cautious in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, posing risks to the property market as some 50,000 flats are likely to be launched this year, analysts say.

“The market is currently slow but quite stable in terms of supply and demand as local buyers are now adopting a more wait-and-see attitude, rather than making a decision,” said Wittaya Dave Apirakviriya, general manager of ThinkOfLiving.com and DDproperty, a unit of proptech group PropertyGuru.

US beats China in soft power and popularity in Southeast Asia, giving it regional edge: analysis

Majority of citizens in 10 countries examined trusted Washington over Beijing, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam
China widely seen as major economic power, while the US perceived as providing significant traditional development aid

The United States enjoys greater soft power and popularity in Southeast Asia than China, presenting Washington a distinct advantage as the two giants face off in the strategically vital region, a comprehensive polling analysis released on Tuesday found.

A majority of citizens, particularly in the region’s most populous nations – Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam – trusted US policies and intentions more than China’s, according to the white paper by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. This gave the US the upper hand in cementing alliances on a range of issues or at least keeping regional states from aligning with Beijing to Washington’s detriment.

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.

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