China’s Xi Jinping talks of ‘common prosperity’ as the rich get richer, with little indication of how it will reduce inequality
- Beijing’s campaign to eliminate absolute poverty, which started in 2015 and was said to have been accomplished last year, also coincided with a rise in inequality
- Booming asset growth among China’s wealthy and urban middle class appears to have stalled efforts to help close the gap between urban and rural incomes, analyst says
But how exactly officials plan to do that is the trillion-dollar question.
And the idea is nothing new in China. In the 1980s, former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping said common prosperity was the ultimate goal in the process of letting some people and regions become rich first, to speed up China’s growth.
“Xi’s speech does confirm that the party is moving toward a greater focus on economic inequality – the logical sequel to its previous campaign to alleviate absolute poverty. It’s less clear what tools they intend to deploy to reduce inequality,” said Andrew Batson, director of China research from economic consultancy Gavekal.
“The obvious candidates are more progressive taxation and larger social-welfare payments to low-income households. But there was very strong resistance in the bureaucracy to increasing fiscal support for household incomes even during the Covid-19 emergency.”
Batson added that the bureaucracy has “long been very conservative in its approach to expanding the welfare state”.
Ironically, Beijing’s campaign to eliminate absolute poverty, which started in 2015 and was said to have been accomplished last year, also coincided with a rise in inequality. The official Gini coefficient, an index that measures income distribution, showed that, after falling for eight straight years to 2015, inequality rose between 2016 and 2018. And with the coronavirus pandemic hitting low-income people much harder than the wealthy, income inequality likely increased further last year.
The renewed rise of inequality in recent years could be partly attributed to booming asset growth, particularly in terms of real estate, among the wealthy and urban middle class, stalling efforts to help close the gap between urban and rural incomes, according to Li Shi, director of the China Institute for Income Distribution.
China’s tax regime is dominated by regressive taxes, such as the value-added tax and the consumption tax, which place greater burdens on low-wage earners because they are constant rates, regardless of income. Over the years, there have been discussions about the introduction of progressive inheritance and property taxes, which would tax the wealthy more, but such efforts have made no real progress so far.
Under China’s decades-long investment-driven growth model, the government has chosen to finance corporate investment rather than transfer money to households. The growth rate of net income transfers to households has generally fallen over the past five years, according to official data.
It is unlikely that Beijing will set an across-the-board target for reducing inequality, such as lowering the Gini index, Batson said. Rather, the government is likely to proceed by focusing on specific areas, such as inequality between urban and rural households.
“While public expenditure will play an important role, reform will play an equally, if not more, important role in tackling rural-urban inequality,” said Song Houze, a research fellow specialising in China’s economy at the Paulson Institute, a US think tank.
To reduce the urban-rural inequality gap, reforming land ownership in rural areas and improving income transfers to urban low-income households are critical, Song said.
China’s rural land, as well as homes built on it, are collectively owned, as opposed to urban land and properties, which are government-owned. Beijing has started to let rural residents retain more of the proceeds from rural land sales – but sales are limited to only people living in the same village or town as the seller, and they are not open to deep-pocketed urban buyers.
“Bringing [the lower] income group into the middle class will require an emphasis on income redistribution to households, which will likely be a focus in the five-year-plan cycle through 2025,” Song said.
Assuming the government carries out large redistribution and reform programmes, roughly an additional 240 million Chinese people could reach middle income by 2025, bringing the total size of China’s middle class to about half the nation’s population, according to Song’s calculations.