Global Impact newsletter: Xi Jinping heads overseas for the first time in 2.5 years as historic third term looms at 20th party congress
- Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
- In this edition, we look at the significance of Xi Jinping’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan coming a month before the 20th party congress in Beijing
In fact, two of the seven members of China’s all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, Xi and legislature head Li Zhanshu, are conducting their foreign trips just four weeks before the twice-a-decade congress. Li started his 11-day trip, that also included Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea, in Russia last week, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Xi will be the first person to serve as party chief for a third five-year term since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, bending the retirement norms accumulated in the following decades.
The date lands right in the middle of the estimated time frame, and is almost identical to the date of the last congress in 2017.
Xi is not expected to appoint a successor during the congress, but all eyes are on if he’s willing to offer any clue as to when he will step down as China’s top leader, or how.
By the time the congress kicks off, Xi will have already brought home some diplomatic victories from his trip to Central Asia, where he reaffirmed close ties with Moscow and continued Beijing’s pivot to the region.
While the rest of the world has mostly reopened, China remains committed to keeping cases to a minimum, to the point that Xi has said China’s policy is decided by “the nature of the party”.
During the congress, a month after the World Health Organization said the end of the pandemic is in sight, Xi is expected to take pride in the achievements of China’s zero-Covid policy, which has been in place since 2020.
It remains unclear if he will hint at China’s plans for dealing with the coronavirus after the congress, with the lockdowns and mass testing having already brought great disruption to its supply chain, dragged down international travel to a minimum and inflicted a great amount of uncertainty on its economic growth.
60 second catch-up
Deep Dives
Is Xi Jinping’s trip overseas the beginning of the end for China’s zero-Covid policy?
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Most of the country’s leadership has avoided travel abroad since the start of the pandemic two years ago
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But face-to-face diplomatic activity appears to be back on the agenda
Chinese President Xi Jinping is one of the very few – if only – state leaders in the world to have avoided overseas travel in the past two years because of Covid-19.
Why size matters when it comes to China’s new leadership line-up
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The Politburo Standing Committee is the party’s top decision-making body, but there are no written rules on how many members it can have
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Analysts say its size is unlikely to change at this year’s congress since Xi has cemented his power and reduced internal fragmentation
Why is retirement beckoning for 11 members of the Communist Party of China’s top decision-making body?
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Unofficial retirement age has been 68, but President Xi Jinping, now 69, is set to remain top leader
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Ahead of party’s national congress, attention has turned to likelihood of successor being anointed
Fading out gradually is seldom an option for top Chinese leaders.
Changing of China’s diplomatic guard on agenda for this year’s party congress
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Foreign policy supremo Yang Jiechi expected to step down from Politburo at age of 72
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Foreign Minister Wang Yi could step up to replace him, but age norms pose hurdle
China on cusp of joining high-income club, but slowdown raises spectre of middle-income trap
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Beijing officials trumpet dazzling economic figures to make case the country can escape middle-income trap
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However, some inconvenient statistics point to a worrying trend for the world’s second-largest economy
Chinese officials like to use numbers to describe the country’s economic miracle.
Who can fill the shoes of China’s Iron Lady Sun Chunlan on Politburo?
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For two years she has ruled the country’s Covid-19 response with an iron fist, but at 72 the vice-premier is expected to step down at this year’s party congress
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But with few women climbing the leadership ladder, it is uncertain if Sun’s successor will be female
China has groomed many female athletes to bring home Olympics gold and trained women astronauts for its ambitious space programme, but without a similar political pathway, the ruling Communist Party may struggle to find a woman who can fill the shoes of Sun Chunlan.
China’s party congress promotions to emphasise political security
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Appointments are expected to sharpen focus on potential threats to the state and draw a line under the corruption scandals of recent years
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The front runners for the key political and legal roles have all served under the Chinese leader from the beginning of his rise to power
Under Xi’s leadership, Beijing has significantly sharpened and reshaped the country’s zhengfa departments, the political and legal organs that form its security mechanisms.
‘Economic tsar’ Liu He has President Xi’s full trust, but who can fill in when Liu retires?
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Short- and long-term economic challenges are testing China, putting added pressure on its top economic adviser
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Vice-Premier Liu He is Xi Jinping’s right-hand man for economic affairs, but some analysts say any potential replacement might not have as much personal authority
Changing of the guard? China’s military may get a new leadership line-up
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Four of seven members on the Central Military Commission are at or have passed the retirement age and could step down at the upcoming party congress
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Analysts say Xi Jinping, who heads the CMC, has done the groundwork and is likely to be looking for combat experience and loyalty when making his picks
Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.