In quantum tech entanglement with China, US may ‘already be behind’ as it moves to block access
- US think tank flags military applications of quantum technology and its potential threat to digital security, while noting how much more China has already spent on research
- Washington’s pre-emptive actions follow sanctions imposed last year that affect China’s access to advanced chipmaking tools and artificial intelligence processors
Washington has taken initial steps to stop China from accessing American quantum technology – an emerging area with military applications – but China already has a leg up on the competition, especially in research spending, according to an American policy think tank.
Legislation finalised by the US Department of Commerce in September says that funding and chips for quantum technology cannot help “countries of concern”, the Centre for Strategic & International Studies said in a paper released on Thursday.
“This policy, though minor, could be an indication of the department’s future desire to prevent quantum technology inputs from reaching China in a way that mirrors semiconductor export controls,” said the document, titled Optimising US Export Controls for Critical and Emerging Technologies.
The technology is expected to improve sensing, navigation, data security, and computing power as it matures. It can help militaries or threaten digital security systems, according to the think tank’s study.
In the semiconductor realm, China faced an escalation of American sanctions last year that affect its access to advanced chipmaking tools and artificial intelligence processors.
In 2020, President Xi Jinping stressed the strategic value of quantum technology, and China has made US$15.3 billion worth of public investments in related research, compared with only US$3.7 billion by the US, the paper said.
China, it added, also has an edge in some quantum raw materials and low-priced “off-the-shelf” components to support the technology.
China, for its part, has implemented policies clarifying that quantum technology development is also of utmost importance
Quantum technology was deemed a top priority in China’s five-year development plan for 2021-25, and a document released last month by two Chinese ministries urged the country to “grasp opportunities”.
“China, for its part, has implemented policies clarifying that quantum technology development is also of the utmost importance,” the US research paper stated.
With quantum tech now at the “forefront of national security”, the paper said, US officials should strengthen relations in Europe.
Equipment such as laser diodes, dilution refrigerators and optical lithography tools “remain in the hands of a few companies located in countries with which the United States shares a robust relationship”, it said.
“The United States should therefore keep a constant dialogue with these nations and firms to build capacity and coordinate possible future export curbs once the technology is more established,” the paper added.
China brings in new export controls on hi-tech products amid US rivalry
The Biden administration began walling off quantum in a 2022 executive order on “certain national security technologies” and “countries of concern”, the think tank noted.
Washington is particularly concerned that if other countries gain an edge, they may be able to circumvent the sophisticated encryption done by normal computers.
“Targeted outbound-investment curbs, teed up in the Biden administration’s executive order … should be used sparingly so that they do not strangle a US and allied quantum industry that may well already be behind China in at least some areas,” the paper advised.
Quantum technology could become a bigger issue as long as the US and China have other disputes, such as over Taiwan or Chinese influence in disputed parts of the South China Sea, said Ker Gibbs, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and a current executive in residence at the University of San Francisco.
“The US and China are already in an aggressive posture, and all the rest are just tactics,” Gibbs said.
