Taiwan returns to monthly export growth as erratic year comes to a close
- Taiwan’s exports, up-and-down in recent months after a long period of contraction, have re-entered a growth pattern in November
- Pickup in demand for hi-tech goods seen as sign of more positive trends next year, particularly if consumption in mainland China also rises
Exports from Taiwan re-entered positive territory in November on the way to what analysts are anticipating as a banner 2024, especially if consumers in mainland China resume buying phones and PCs.
Hi-tech giants on the island have finally controlled inventory that accumulated after pandemic-era telework and telestudy purchases died down, analysts said, adding makers of phones, PCs and their components should expect everyday gadget shopping to rebound in 2024.
“As the bottoming out in the global chip cycle and the world’s embrace of artificial intelligence lead to stronger demand for advanced semiconductors, Taiwanese industrial production and exports will benefit,” Moody’s Analytics associate economist Jeemin Bang said.
Taiwan is the world’s biggest seller of chips, which can be installed in a range of electronic devices. Tech, including the assembly of common consumer electronics such as phones, makes up about a third of the island’s economy.
Eyes will be on consumer sentiment in the mainland next year as a prime market for hi-tech gadgets, but analysts aren’t yet confident enough to don rose-coloured glasses.
“We’re not getting too excited,” said Tony Phoo, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei. He expressed caution over possible headwinds stymieing the mainland’s own exports – a bellwether for its wider economic prosperity. That figure, he said, “would need to pick up dramatically.”
Tech market research firm IDC raised its world semiconductor revenue expectations to US$632.8 billion from US$625.9 billion, based on a projection the US market will remain “resilient from a demand standpoint” while the mainland “will begin recovering” by the second half of 2024.
Taiwan counted the mainland and Hong Kong combined as its largest export market last month at US$12.71 billion, the ministry in Taipei said, despite a 6.3 per cent fall in exports year on year.
Global shipments of electronic components from Taiwan fell by 3.6 per cent last month compared to the same month last year, hitting US$14.6 billion. But that drop was countered by shipments of information, communications and audiovisual products, which surged 74 per cent, year on year, to US$9.4 billion.
World smartphone production in the third quarter this year grew 6.4 per cent year-on-year after eight quarters of annual decline, Taipei-based market research firm TrendForce said on Thursday, also stating it expects another gain this quarter.
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PC sales will probably tumble by 12.5 per cent this year globally but rise 5.8 per cent next year, said Chris Wei, a senior industry analyst with the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute in Taipei. The introduction of AI PCs and a Windows “replacement cycle” should also be beneficial, Wei added.
Taiwan-based Acer, one of the world’s top 10 PC vendors by market share, said it “performed well” on Amazon during the US’ pre-holiday shopping spree in late November. Its notebook PC revenue rose 8 per cent over the same period in 2022, a company spokeswoman said.
Exports to the United States from Taiwan grew by 33.1 per cent last month to US$7.8 billion, and Europe took 1.7 per cent more shipments in November compared with the same month last year.
Taiwan’s exports for all of 2023 are forecast to reach their third-highest on record at more than US$400 billion, the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taipei said in a social media statement on December 2.
