China’s population facing ‘largest absolute population loss’, UN says

There is a 50 per cent chance China’s population could return to a size comparable to the late 1950s by 2100, the United Nations says

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Last year, China’s population dropped for the second year in a row, falling to 1.4097 billion after its overall population fell by 2.08 million. Photo: Bloomberg

Published: 10:00am, 28 Jul 2024

China could experience the largest population decline any country has ever experienced, according to the United Nations, with a 50 per cent chance it could lose more than half of its current population by the end of the century.

The ongoing population decline in China is due to it having fewer women of childbearing age, delays in people getting married, as well as the growing popularity of not having children altogether.

By 2100, China’s population could return to a size comparable to the late 1950s as it faces losing 786 million people, according to the summary of results from the United Nations’ 2024 World Population Prospects published earlier this month.

China “will likely experience the largest absolute population loss [of 204 million] between 2024 and 2054,” the report said, followed by Japan and Russia, whose potential losses stand at 21 million and 10 million, respectively.

Longer-range population projections, though, are more uncertain, the report added.

According to the United Nations, India replaced China as the world’s most populous country in April last year, although official statistics are not available as India was not able to complete its planned once-a-decade census in 2021 due to the coronavirus.