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Kim Jong-un’s latest provocation may strengthen Shinzo Abe’s hand at home because ‘it looks like he’s doing something’
In a break with a long-running cautious defence stance, members of Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party have called for Japan to arm itself with long-range offensive weapons
Watch: North Korea fires missile over Japan
“Generally these types of crises are good for the government,” said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University’s Japan campus. “It looks like he’s doing something, and it’s hard for the opposition to criticise.”
It’s unclear if Kim intended the launch to send a message to Abe, or whether he wanted to test out certain aspects of the missile’s flight, which by necessity took it over Japan. He had threatened to launch a missile over southern Japan toward Guam earlier this month.
Either way, it is likely to increase support for a stronger Japanese military, a key issue for Abe as he seeks to become the country’s longest-serving leader. He has steadily boosted defence spending since taking office in 2012, and sought to change the pacifist constitution that has defined Japan’s security policy since the second world war.
The missile is also set to harden the mood in Japan for talks with North Korea. That could exacerbate differing approaches between Abe’s conservative government in Tokyo and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who favours dialogue with North Korea.
Generally these types of crises are good for the government. It looks like he’s doing something, and it’s hard for the opposition to criticise
After speaking with US President Donald Trump for 40 minutes on Tuesday, Abe said the leaders agreed to increase pressure on North Korea, and reiterated that China and Russia needed to do more to rein in Kim’s regime. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said now is the time to push Pyongyang.
In Tokyo on Tuesday, the mood was relatively calm. Commuters on morning trains were checking the news on their smartphones, but services ran as normal and there was no sense of panic. Japan’s benchmark Topix index closed 0.2 per cent lower, but pared its initial fall.
Sirens sounded around 6am local time in Hokkaido, with alerts on loudspeakers warning residents that a missile had been fired. The projectile’s sea splashdown was announced later to ease fears.
Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Tuesday that no order to shoot down the missile was issued because Japan determined that it wasn’t aimed at its territory.
“A shoot-down must have a verifiable defensive purpose,” said Michael Cucek, an adjunct fellow at Temple University. “When a missile is 500 km above your territory on a trajectory to land in the ocean, an attempted shoot-down is a purely political act.”
Still, the launch will increase calls for missile defence, he said. Any extra spending will likely be included in an additional budget next year.
Japan already has a two-phase ballistic-missile defence system, consisting of land-based PAC-3 interceptors and Aegis-equipped ships carrying SM-3 interceptors. Deployment of the US’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile shield appears off the table for the time being.
Japan’s Defence Ministry will this week seek a 2.5 per cent increase in its budget for the 2018 financial year, including an allocation for the Aegis Ashore missile defence system, local media reported. It will also set aside funds to upgrade its automatic alert control system because North Korea is increasingly firing missiles on a lofted trajectory, the reports said.
Voters may be even more interested in how Abe manages the US in this situation than in how he manages North Korea
In a break with a long-running cautious defence stance, members of Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party have called for Japan to arm itself with long-range offensive weapons. The group, which included the now-defence minister, released a document in March that cited a “new level of threat” from North Korea.
Still, there are limits to the public’s appetite to strengthen the military. While the needle has moved slightly in favour of a discussion on gaining counterstrike capabilities, the obstacles “remain salient”, according to Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence in Washington.
“Pre-emptive strike capabilities would be too heavy a lift for Japan right now and counterstrike or retaliatory capabilities are more reasonable,” he said. “But even they would be logistically difficult and time consuming.”
For the time being, Japan has little choice but to remain reliant on the US “nuclear umbrella” for protection against North Korea. That means that Trump’s reaction may weigh on the public perception of Abe, according to Harris.
The president issued a statement on Tuesday US time saying North Korea had signalled contempt for its neighbours.
“Voters may be even more interested in how Abe manages the US in this situation than in how he manages North Korea,” Harris said. “The reality is that for the short to medium term, Japan’s best defence is ensuring that the US extended deterrence remains intact.”
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