Thailand politics: 4 ways Prayuth Chan-ocha’s suspension might play out
- The Constitutional Court is set to rule on former junta chief Prayuth’s fate – but that could take months, and he has other options in the meantime
- Will he resign before a ruling is made? Or could the court drag out the process all the way until the government’s term ends in March next year?
The court, whose members were largely picked by a military-appointed Senate, took the action while it deliberates on whether Prayuth exceeded an eight-year term limit added into the post-coup constitution.
The court’s move has fuelled speculation that Thailand’s royal establishment is looking to replace Prayuth ahead of an election that must be called by March 2023.
“The power that Prayuth seized eight years ago has very much declined,” said Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a law professor at Thammasat University. “The suspension came despite previous favourable rulings in the coupmaker’s favour, making people anxious about what’s going to happen next.”
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Here’s how the situation may play out over the next few months:
1. Prayuth returns after court gives him the thumbs-up
A favourable court ruling for Prayuth means he can immediately stay on as prime minister and complete his four-year term in March. But the decision will still help decide whether he remains the ruling party’s candidate heading into the next election.
If the court says Prayuth’s term started in June 2019, when he was named prime minister of a civilian government, then he can still serve another full four-year term. But if it puts the start date at April 2017, when the constitution became effective, then it makes it more likely he’ll be replaced by the ruling party before the next vote.
2. Court rules Prayuth must leave as term limit exceeded
A ruling against Prayuth means that he’ll immediately lose power and no political party can nominate him as a prime minister candidate in the next election. The cabinet would also need to step down and serve as caretakers until parliament picks a new leader. Legal experts are split on whether Prayuth can stay on as caretaker, saying the constitution doesn’t give clarity on this point.
One potential issue for the military establishment is who would immediately replace Prayuth. The House of Representatives and the Senate must select a new leader from a list approved before the 2019 polls, and Prayuth was the only military-friendly candidate.
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3. Prayuth resigns before court makes its ruling
By law, Prayuth can resign as prime minister at any time – even during his suspension. This means the whole cabinet would step into a caretaker capacity until lawmakers and the Senate select a new prime minister.
In this scenario, legal experts are not all in agreement on whether Prayuth becomes interim prime minister given he has been suspended. Prawit would therefore likely stay on as caretaker after Prayuth resigns.
Still, this scenario is considered unlikely since Prayuth could’ve already heeded protester demands and left before his suspension.
“If the establishment had wanted Prayuth to step down, his resignation ahead of the decision would’ve been more graceful way with the display of his political spirit,” said Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.
4. Court delays ruling on Prayuth’s case until next elections
There isn’t a set time for when the Constitutional Court must issue a ruling, raising the possibility that it could drag out the process all the way until the government’s term ends in March next year.
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It would also leave Prayuth’s status unclear heading into the next election, raising the prospect that the ruling party opts for another candidate to end the uncertainty.
Analysts have said it wouldn’t make sense to delay the verdict for longer than two months given his suspension is likely to have been aimed at lowering the political temperature in Thailand.