A US defence intelligence official has warned that Beijing’s growing military prowess might encourage it to consider bringing self-ruled Taiwan under its control by force, despite concerns from the United States.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in Washington, said such a possibility was the biggest worry in Washington as Beijing steadily expanded and modernised its military, although he did not predict the mainland would take such a step any time soon.
“The biggest concern is that … they are getting to a point where the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] leadership may actually tell [mainland Chinese President] Xi Jinping that they are confident in their capabilities,” the official was quoted by Reuters as saying.
Asked if he was referring to the mainland’s confidence in its ability to win a battle with Taiwan, Reuters quoted the official as saying: “Well, specifically that would be the most concerning to me.”
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In a speech on January 2, marking the 40th anniversary of a cross-strait ceasefire, Xi called for talks to seek a peaceful unification with Taiwan under the one-China principle but stressed Beijing would not renounce the use of force to achieve that purpose.
Xi also warned against any “external interference” in the mainland’s handling of the Taiwan issue, which Beijing has long regarded as an internal matter.
Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province which must be reunified, by force if necessary. In addition to staging a series of war games around Taiwan and poaching five of its allies, it has suspended official exchanges with the island since Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle.
Tsai, who has rejected Xi’s call for talks, vowed to safeguard the island’s sovereignty and security during her inspection of its army defence command in the eastern county of Hualien on Tuesday.
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“The leader from the other side of the Taiwan Strait has reiterated in a recent speech that they would not renounce the use of force to attack Taiwan, which has created a certain impact on regional peace and stability,” she said.
She promised further support for the military to safeguard Taiwan, referring to her decision to increase the military budget to at least 3 per cent of the island’s GDP.
Beijing has been particularly upset over Washington’s continued arms sales to Taipei, which it believes is a US attempt to use Taiwan as a pawn in dealing with the mainland’s expanding military and economic influence in the region.
On Tuesday, Li Zuocheng, chief of the mainland Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department, said that if someone tried to split Taiwan from China, the PLA would do “whatever it takes to safeguard national reunification, national sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
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However, the US official cautioned against overreacting, noting that Xi had reason to believe he had plenty of time to achieve unification with Taiwan.
Hong Kong-based columnist and commentator Lau Yui-siu said Xi would consider forced unification only if Taiwan declared independence, “or in the event that he wanted to shift attention at home due to internal struggles or mounting opposition”.
Lau said Xi would otherwise opt for peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan issue as he addressed economic and political issues at home along with diplomatic and commercial matters involving the US and other countries.