New US military bases in Asia-Pacific ‘likely to be temporary’ for troop flexibility
- Former adviser to US Indo-Pacific Command chief says Pentagon wants locations that aren’t permanent to allow forces to be rotated as needed
- But analysts say nature of stations won’t deter Beijing from using ‘coercive diplomacy’ on host countries
Any new US military bases in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to be “temporary” to maximise troop flexibility and in line with the Pentagon’s agreement with Manila, according to a former special assistant to the US Indo-Pacific Command chief.
But analysts said it would not matter if the American bases were temporary or permanent – Beijing would still take “coercive measures” in the region when it felt they were needed.
Eric Sayers, an adjunct senior fellow with the defence programme at the Centre for a New American Security, said US military bases did not have to be permanent, the most important thing was improved troop mobilisation and strategic capacity.
“[Temporary bases] are designed to build more resiliency and ensure that China does not conclude it can quickly win a war by paralysing American military power,” said Sayers, who advised the former commander, Admiral Harry Harris, on strategic engagements in the Indo-Pacific.
“For instance, we negotiated the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement with the Philippines in 2014 to enhance our alliance there and give it new tools to deal with Chinese maritime coercion.”
The agreement does not allow the United States to establish any permanent military bases in the Philippines, but it enables it to rotate troops into the country for extended stays, and it can build and operate facilities on Philippine bases.
“The central issue here is that these new access locations are not permanent but will give the US the flexibility to rotate forces around the theatre as they and US allies and partners see fit,” Sayers said.
US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper said on Wednesday that the United States wanted to invest in more bases in the Asia-Pacific, adding to its China containment activities in the region, after saying earlier this month that the US hoped to deploy intermediate-range missiles there.
US warplane flies along dividing line between mainland China and Taiwan
Sayers said there was an urgency to find new ways to project American power in the region as “China’s investment in a reconnaissance-strike military complex has matured”.
“We have [also] finalised an air force agreement for access to two airbases in northern Australia, where we are building ramp space, munitions storage and fuel storage. This will allow us to conduct more high-end exercises with the Australian military and to … project combat power should the need arise,” Sayers said.
“Allies and partners would do best to invest in modernising their own military, especially in ways that can operate alongside and complement the United States.”
James Floyd Downes, a lecturer in comparative politics at Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the US plan to set up temporary bases could be more appealing for Southeast Asian nations.
“It is plausible that this may allow some Southeast Asian countries to host US bases,” Downes said, but noted that the bases could just be “ceremonial” in nature.
The US Air Force opened a “transit centre”, rather than an airbase, at Manas International Airport near Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in 2001 to support its activities in Afghanistan. But it was handed back to the Kyrgyz military in 2014, and American troops left, after Russia, China and others spent years calling for its closure.
Explained: South China Sea dispute
Patrick Cronin, from the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, earlier told Defense News that the US could expand its military presence in parts of Southeast Asia.
In Vietnam, while Hanoi’s defence policy is believed to involve no military alliances or foreign troops stationed on Vietnamese soil, it has recently increased its military cooperation with the US amid an escalating dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea – known in Vietnam as the East Sea.
China lays claim to most of the busy, resource-rich waterway marked within its “nine-dash line” and has built artificial islands in contested areas, installed airstrips and military equipment. The US Navy has sent ships into waters around the Chinese-controlled islands and reefs on an almost monthly basis since the end of last year “to challenge excessive maritime claims”.
But analysts said temporary US military bases in the region would not deter Beijing from using “coercive diplomacy” on the host countries.
“Beijing has its own ways of [using] coercive measures, which are applied in various circumstances. If a country shares a different perspective than the Chinese official position on Beijing’s core interests, coercive diplomacy comes into play,” said Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, a visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“I do not think that the presence of US temporary stations will generally weaken Beijing’s willingness to use coercive measures when it wishes to do so.”
