Fall of Kabul sends big players US, China, Russia into diplomatic flurry over Afghan future
- China ready to work with US to ensure a ‘soft landing’ in Afghanistan, but says Washington would need to dial back the pressure on its strategic rival
- Concerns about Afghan projects and terrorism spilling over to Xinjiang may see Beijing pursue a stronger relationship with the Taliban, observers say
In a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing was ready to work with America to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a humanitarian disaster or a hotbed for terrorism, following the stunning collapse of the Afghan government on Monday as the Taliban took over the capital city and presidential palace within hours.
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Taliban takes control of Afghan capital Kabul as President Ghani flees country
However, Wang said Washington needed to dial back the pressure on its greatest rival, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
“China stands ready to have communication and dialogue with the United States to push for a soft landing of the Afghan issue,” he was quoted as saying. “However, the United States cannot, on the one hand, work hard to contain and suppress China and undermine China’s legitimate rights and interests, and, on the other hand, count on China’s support and cooperation.”
The two diplomats called on each other to play an important role in the transition process.
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In a flurry of diplomatic phone calls, Blinken also discussed Afghanistan with his counterparts from Russia, Pakistan, India, the European Union, Nato, Turkey and Britain, while Wang agreed to step up communication and coordination on Afghanistan with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Wang told Lavrov that China and Russia should step up communication over Afghanistan, to push the Taliban to ensure the safety of their citizens and organisations, as well as encourage the insurgent group to adopt a mild religious policy and crack down on terrorism.
Turmoil in Afghanistan binding China and Russia even closer
The intense discussions between major players highlighted the uncertainties in the next steps for Afghanistan and for the Afghans rushing to flee its borders after the Taliban took control, marking an end to two decades of US military support for the now-collapsed government. A group of senior leaders in Afghanistan are set to begin talks with the Taliban to set up a new government.
The Taliban has insisted that its return to power will be different from its fundamentalist reign more than two decades ago, including women being able to go about their lives freely and blanket amnesty for Afghan government employees. However, there have already been restrictive signs of women being banned from working and images of women being painted over in the streets.
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Women fear the worst for their freedoms as Taliban return to power in Afghanistan
The White House has faced intense backlash over its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, with growing calls for foreign governments to accept Afghan refugees, as stark images circulated of desperate crowds at the international airport and on overflowing military aircraft.
“And our true strategic competitors – China and Russia – would love nothing more than the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilising Afghanistan indefinitely,” Biden said.
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Wang in his call with Blinken on Monday said it was “dangerous and mistaken” of the previous US administration to remove ETIM from its terror list, and urged Washington to “clear the barriers” for the strategic rivals to cooperate on Afghanistan and global terrorism.
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Li Shaoxian, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, said China is “very concerned” that Afghanistan could become an arena for terrorism and religious extremism, but that the Taliban’s approach in its takeover so far has seemed to signal the potential for an inclusive reconciliation process to stabilise the country.
“A soft landing is definitely a stable transition without violence and bloodshed, and an open and inclusive process where various powers and factions will be in consultation over the political transition,” he said. “Achieving this kind of situation is in everyone’s interest.”
But Beijing still has reservations over the Taliban’s commitments, given its history and ties to terrorist groups, observers said.
“We are of course paying attention to religious, separatist and terrorist forces, especially ETIM, since they have a presence in Afghanistan, including using it as a base in the 1990s,” Li said. “The Chinese government will need to work hard to ensure that Afghanistan will not become an arena for these forces … and I think that the Taliban is also very clear that this is a core issue.”
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Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Centre in Washington, said that Beijing has already laid the groundwork for a formal relationship with the Taliban in its engagements in recent years, and that the Taliban would want to gain legitimacy by convincing the world that it was a responsible government despite its track record.
“I imagine Beijing will recognise the Taliban government, especially as it will conclude that a strong relationship with the Taliban will put it in a stronger position to pursue its interests in Afghanistan,” he said.
“I don’t think the Taliban would be opposed to endorsing Chinese infrastructure projects and denying space to Uygur militants – Beijing’s two main goals in Afghanistan.”
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China is likely to be more confident that a Taliban regime would be attentive to its terrorism concerns compared to a weak and dysfunctional anti-Taliban government, Kugelman said, particularly since ETIM – as a relatively small outfit – offers little value to the Taliban.
“One potential tension point, however, revolves around Chinese intentions,” he said. “I can’t imagine the Taliban supporting covert Chinese actions in Afghanistan to target ETIM. But I also don’t see the Taliban acting militarily against ETIM.”
Su Chang, a Sino-Russian expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the border between China and Afghanistan had been one of the most important lines of defence for western China.
“Afghanistan’s civil war ended over the course of a few days – this is not normal,” he said, adding that the Taliban’s relatively peaceful takeover of Kabul may have been the result of prior negotiations.
Additional reporting by Minnie Chan
