Will US President Joe Biden’s election woes have an impact on approach to China?

Chinese observers say Biden may face pressure to take a tougher stance towards Beijing ahead of next year’s midterm elections
The Democrats suffered a high-profile setback in the Virginia governor’s race this week

US-China relations

Amber Wangin Beijing

Published: 11:00pm, 5 Nov 2021

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The setbacks suffered by the Democrats in this week’s US elections may intensify the foreign policy pressures on Joe Biden even if they do not have a direct impact on the White House’s approach to China, Chinese diplomatic observers have said.

The Democrats’ most high-profile defeat came in Virginia, where the Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe in the election for governor, and they only just held on in the New Jersey gubernatorial election.

“The election results are a serious setback for the Democrats,” said Lu Xiang, a US-China scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “There is a possibility that Biden will set out more chaotic policies when the party is weak.”

Taiwan is the main problem for Xi-Biden talks, Chinese observers say

Chinese diplomatic observers said economic pressures and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic had probably influenced the result.

“Under the Trump administration, the number of deaths caused by Covid-19 were about 400,000. Now, the death toll has increased to 750,000 in the US,” he said

Diao Daming, an international relations professor at Renmin University, cited sluggish economic data in the third quarter, where GDP growth slowed to 2 per cent compared with 6.7 per cent in the previous quarter.

“The situation is difficult for the Democrats, and the result will probably have implications for the midterm elections in the US next year,” he said.

Foreign policy decisions, including the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, had also affected Biden’s popularity, Diao said.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost in Virginia. Photo: Reuters

In addition to domestic issues, observers said the Biden administration is under intensifying pressure at home and abroad to take a tougher stance towards China.

Over the past months, the Biden administration has said it is committed to providing security backup to Taiwan – which Beijing regards as a breakaway province – and stepped up military deployments in the Indo-Pacific along with its allies.

Washington has also continued to criticise Beijing’s policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, but senior officials from the two countries have also re-engaged with each other in recent months in an effort to prevent the situation escalating further.

Diao said it is worth watching whether Biden toughens his stance towards China in the run-up to next year’s midterm elections.

US officials walk back Biden’s remarks on Taiwan, say policy has not changed

“I think people are observing whether the Biden will be pragmatic in managing foreign affairs or resorts to a harder line against Beijing under pressure from the Republicans,” he said.

Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the Democrats have a “weak majority” and predicted the White House would continue to toughen its stance towards China.