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China’s military
ChinaMilitary

Chinese military plans for Taiwan hampered by second island chain

  • Mainland magazine outlines scenario for attack on self-ruled island but concedes it would result in protracted war with US
  • China’s next aircraft carrier equipped with electromagnetic catapults could reverse the strategic situation, it suggests

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The fast attack submarine USS Oklahoma City at the US naval base on Guam, part of the strategic second island chain. Photo: AP
Kristin Huang
The PLA air force’s recent exercises in the South China Sea were designed to enhance its ability to prevent other militaries from coming to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an attack, according to the latest issue of mainland magazine Naval and Merchant Ships.

The article outlined a simulation of how an assault on the self-ruled island could play out, while acknowledging that the PLA’s ability to attack was constrained by the second island chain – a strategic group of islands in the middle of the West Pacific Ocean which includes the US military base on Guam, around 2,700km (1,677 miles) from Taiwan.

Graphic: SCMP
Graphic: SCMP

While the PLA’s attacking range extended to the second island chain, an attack on Guam would not be wise as it would inevitably lead to a prolonged conflict between the US and China, the magazine said. In contrast, the US could rapidly deploy military resources, including B-1B and B-52 heavy strategic bombers.

But the situation would be reversed if China’s next aircraft carrier, equipped with electromagnetic catapults and stealth planes, could get close to Hawaii. “At that time, the Taiwan issue and the future of the Western Pacific would have nothing to do with the US any longer.”

Beijing regards the self-ruled island as a renegade province, to be returned to mainland control by force, if necessary. In July, to mark the centenary of the ruling Communist Party, the same magazine published a detailed outline of a possible three-stage attack which could pave the way for an assault landing on Taiwan.

Despite acknowledging the current limitations on any PLA assault on Taiwan, the latest article also put forward a possible scenario, starting with the launch of DF-16 ballistic missiles and DF-10A ground attack cruise missiles to paralyse the island’s airports, early warning systems and anti-air missile bases.

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