China says Japan’s military pivot will have ‘serious impact’ on regional stability
- Influential military magazine says Japan’s defence budget shows how its forces could launch long-range strikes
- Japan’s shift from ‘shield’ to ‘sword’ will trigger regional arms races, ‘deserves high vigilance’, according to Modern Ships
A long-range strike scenario showed how Japanese armed forces could target and destroy rival assets by coordinating weaponry, including aerial satellites, submarines, glide bombs, hypersonic cruise missiles and fighter jets, the magazine said in its April issue.
It said Japan had “ridden the tide” of US competition with other major countries and taken advantage of this by developing both offensive and defensive forces, which feature stand-off capabilities.
Modern Ships criticised Japan for exacerbating regional geopolitical tensions, triggering arms races in the Asia-Pacific region and damaging the overall prospects of Sino-Japan relations.
“[Japan’s] Self-Defence Forces turning to an offensive posture shows that Japan’s right-wing forces are breaking the post-war system and intervening in regional situations. It will have a serious impact on the regional military balance and strategic stability, and deserves high vigilance,” the magazine said.
“Remarks like ‘safeguarding Taiwan is safeguarding Japan’ are aimed at suppressing international and domestic worries over worsening Sino-Japan relations.”
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“Once Japan has the ability to conduct long-range strikes, the nation is expected to change from a ‘shield’ to a ‘sword’ … push for a complete lift of the ban on the development of its military power, and eventually achieve the country’s goal of becoming a major military power,” the magazine said.
Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist from the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said Japan’s decision to acquire counterstrike capabilities – a concept that overlaps with stand-off capabilities – is a notable change in the nation’s military development.
“One of the most talked-about aspects of Japan’s recent changes is its decision to acquire counter-strike capabilities. This means that the country is acquiring long-range capabilities that could be used to strike enemy bases in the event of an attack,” Aoki said.
“Japan has a multi-tier defence system against ballistic missile attacks, but the country’s acquisition of long-range counter-strike capabilities adds another element that complicates decision-making in Beijing and Pyongyang, because this means that Japan can respond to a missile attack by striking their bases if necessary,” she added.
Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist also from the Rand Corporation, said while Japan had distanced itself from its traditional posture, the country’s military positioning remained primarily defensive.
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“If you look at its force as a whole, it’s still very much oriented towards defence … Japan still is very much focused on defence and trying to deter would-be adversaries from trying to attack Japan,” Hornung said.