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Xi-Ma summit sets new one-China 'status quo' test for Taiwan's next leader, analysts say

Meeting set example - and restrictions - for Taiwan's future leaders to accept 1992 consensus if peace is to be maintained, analysts say

Maintaining the status quo has been the principle upheld by the mainland and Taiwan.

The summit not only set a precedent for the two sides to have high-level talks but also set an example - and restrictions - for the future ruling party and president of Taiwan to accept the one-China principle if peace was to be maintained, they added.

Under an understanding reached between semi-official channels in 1992, Beijing and Taipei agreed there was only one China but agreed to disagree on what that constituted.

But the summit on Saturday has created a "new status quo", analysts say. "President Xi and Ma have joined hands and created a new status quo, which is high-level talks between two leaders across the Taiwan Strait to peaceful develop relations, on the basis of recognising the 1992 consensus," said Zhang Tongxin, who studies Taiwanese, Hong Kong and Macau affairs at Renmin University. "It has restricted future leaders - from any party - if they wish to maintain the status quo of peaceful development."

Read more: Full coverage of Xi-Ma summit

Xu Shiquan, a researcher on Taiwanese affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the status quo was dynamic and it was up to future leaders to accept the 1992 consensus and maintain the status quo.

Li Fei, a professor at Xiamen University, agreed, saying Beijing would accept "different interpretations" for future leaders to maintain high-level contact. But the mainland had two non-negotiables - Taiwan must accept there was only "one China" and the island's leaders must not seek independence.

"This is the political foundation of the summit and the most important one," Li said.

Li said Beijing and Taipei had made compromises to make the summit happen. Xi reversed his position of never meeting a Taiwanese leader in an international setting, while Ma ceded his demand of being addressed as president of the Republic of China.

"The message for Tsai is that the political foundation for the summit is peaceful development of Beijing-Taipei relations and the 1992 consensus must be accepted if the status quo is to be preserved," said Chang ling-chen, a political scientist at National Taiwan University.

The summit was also aimed at sending a message to the United States - Taiwan's main ally - that Washington must work out a policy with Tsai on maintaining stable cross-strait ties. US State Department spokesman John Kirby said the United States welcomed the meeting, adding it encouraged "further progress by both sides toward building ties, reducing tensions, and promoting stability".

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Talks hand one-China status quo test to Tsai
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