US-China war unlikely, but Hong Kong should be prepared to be ‘sandwiched’, ‘kicked around like a football’ for next decade amid tensions

Former president of UN Security Council Kishore Mahbubani gives his take on city’s political reality at forum by Singapore Chamber of Commerce

He also warns that city should shore up US business presence locally as political buffer, while also tackling internal conflict from 2019 chaos and housing shortage

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The Hong Kong and national flags displayed in Tsim Sha Tsui last year to mark the 25th anniversary of the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty. Photo: Felix Wong

Published: 11:56am, 13 May 2023Updated: 4:11pm, 13 May 2023

A war between the United States and China is unlikely despite their growing rivalry, a top political analyst has said, while warning that Hong Kong should be prepared to be “kicked around” like a “football” amid more sanctions over the next decade.

At a forum on Friday organised by the Singapore Chamber of Commerce, former president of the United Nations Security Council Kishore Mahbubani said it would only be a lose-lose situation if the two nuclear powers went to war.

“The good news is that war is very unlikely between the US and China … Both will lose in a nuclear war. Millions will die,” he warned.

Kishore Mahbubani addresses audience members at a forum. Photo: Handout

“The one thing that the United States and China agree on is that there should be no nuclear war. Even in the Ukraine war, there’s an understanding that nuclear weapons will not be used. So for that reason, I don’t think Hong Kong itself will be involved in a war.”

Mahbubani, a retired Singaporean top diplomat, pointed out that China would only go to war in the event Taiwan declared independence, but the people of the self-ruled island would be wise to avoid that.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province to be brought under control by force, if necessary. Many countries, including the US, do not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state but oppose the use of force to change the status quo.

Mahbubani warned it would be unavoidable for Hong Kong to be sandwiched between Beijing and Washington and “kicked around” like a football in the next decade amid their escalating rivalry.