A US bill to sanction Hong Kong officials, legal figures will not derail meeting between President Xi Jinping and America’s Joe Biden, experts predict
- International law expert predicts US ‘provocative move’ on sanctions will not be allowed in run-up to Xi-Biden meeting later this month
- US sanctions bill to target 49 officials and legal figures surfaces as Jinping-Biden meeting at Apec in San Francisco announced
Hong Kong academics and a former diplomat have predicted that proposed US legislation drawn up to sanction 49 city officials and judges is unlikely to derail an expected meeting between the leaders of China and America later this month.
But the experts warned the city might come under more political pressure in the run-up to the next US presidential elections, almost exactly a year away.
The Hong Kong Sanctions Act is a bipartisan bid by American legislators in the House of Representatives and the Senate designed to get the administration of US President Joe Biden to penalise 49 city officials, judges and prosecutors for their roles in “human rights violations” under the Beijing-imposed national security law.
Ryan Mitchell, an associate professor of law at Chinese University, on Friday said the proposed legislation would not become a major factor in the run-up to the meeting as neither Biden nor his Democratic Party would be interested in a “provocative move” that could damage prospects of an improvement in relations between the two countries.
Mitchell, an expert in international law, said that although the US had earlier slapped sanctions on judges and prosecutors in some jurisdictions, it was unusual for them to cover a relatively broad swathe of a judicial system.
“One thing worth noting is that these sorts of moves are an alternative to the attempt to impose comprehensive sanctions on Hong Kong, which remain very unlikely as this would seriously impede the business of many important global firms,” he said.
Hong Kong slams US lawmakers over bill seeking to sanction 49 local officials
Lau Siu-kai, a consultant for Beijing’s semi-official think tank, the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said he expected the sanctions bill would not derail the leaders’ meeting, although it might have an impact on US-China relations.
“This is an action by members of Congress, not by the US government,” Lau said. “While it will embarrass the Biden administration, it should not have any impact on the Xi-Biden meeting.”
The Hong Kong government and the Chinese foreign ministry’s office in the city condemned the US bill on Friday and attacked “some unscrupulous US politicians”.
John Burns, an honorary professor at the University of Hong Kong’s department of politics and public administration, said the proposed sanctions “should be condemned” as they would increase the perception that the city’s judiciary was not independent.
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The scholar said party politics would be at play as the bill would have to pass the House and the Senate and it was difficult to predict the chances of it being signed into law by Biden.
“It’s an election year next year, which means lots of political posturing to chase votes,” Burns added.
Chief Justice Andrew Cheung Kui-nung, Secretary for Justice Paul Lam Ting-kwok and Commissioner of Police Raymond Siu Chak-yee were named in the US bill, alongside four other justices, seventeen judges, six magistrates and several prosecutors.
The proposed legislation, introduced on Wednesday, was referred to the committees on foreign affairs and the judiciary for discussion, which will decide whether it should go to the House of Representatives and Senate for deliberation.
The bill, if passed, would mandate Biden to determine within 180 days whether to impose sanctions in line with existing laws such as the Global Magnitsky Act and the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
The next US presidential election will be held in November 2024 and a tough stance against China remains a bipartisan cause on Capitol Hill.
The Hong Kong Autonomy Act was approved by lawmakers in both houses by unanimous consent in July 2020.
Lau also predicted Hong Kong would feel more “pressure” from US politicians as the election cycle in the US would coincide with two controversial events in Hong Kong.
“There will definitely be more [crossfires], especially when Hong Kong will go ahead with the Article 23 legislation and trial of Jimmy Lai [Chee-ying],” Lau said. “There is also the lobbying of US politicians by ‘anti-China and Hong Kong’ elements who have fled overseas.”
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The trial of Lai, the founder of the now-closed Apple Daily newspaper, will begin on December 18.
The media tycoon faces allegations of sedition and conspiracy to collude with foreign forces.
Kurt Tong, a former US envoy to Hong Kong, said sanctioning judges could be considered controversial given the importance of judicial independence.
“Judges must usually stay within the confines of the laws that are in place, regardless of whether those laws are just,” said Tong, who is now the managing partner of US consulting firm The Asia Group.
Citing unidentified “congressional experts” in Washington, the former envoy said the bill was unlikely to pass.
