Boris Johnson’s fate in UK partygate could rest with police, powerful 1922 Committee
- Johnson’s leadership in question as police investigate lockdown parties at Downing Street, Whitehall
- The Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee has the power to trigger moves to oust the prime minister
Mired in lockdown party scandals, the fate of embattled UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could be determined by two powerful institutions.
The other, the Conservative Party’s own powerful 1922 Committee, which is made up of 18 backbench MPs. Unlike the frontbench ministers who sit next to the prime minister in the UK parliament, backbenchers do not head government ministries or departments.
However it is these 18 “men in grey suits” as the committee is also known (although the current committee has three women) that Johnson probably fears the most, for the short-term at least. It has the power to trigger moves to oust the prime minister.
The Cabinet Office said its own investigation by senior official Sue Gray was continuing and there was ongoing contact with police. Gray’s report, also seen as crucial to Johnson’s fate, was expected to be made public this week. There were also reports it could be delayed in light of police involvement.
“The Met Police (yes the police) is investigating the highest office in this country. Is that not enough for @Conservatives to deal with this and restore a resemblance of decency and normality,” Gary Neville, the legendary former Manchester United footballer, tweeted. “Send your damn letters now or you’re all complicit. He’s taking you all down.”
Under the Conservative Party’s constitution, 15 per cent of Tory MPs, which at the moment is 54 of them, have to express their desire for a vote of no-confidence in writing to the 1922 Committee’s chairman.
That position has been held since 2010 by Graham Brady, MP for Altrincham and Sale West in Greater Manchester.
The committee, little understood outside university politics departments and the corridors of Westminster, will once again get its chance to make or break a Conservative Party leader.
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The 1922 Committee was set up in 1923, named after the October 1922 general election intake of Tory MPs swept into parliament when the Conservatives won a majority of seats. The victory was enough to defeat both their former coalition partner the Liberal Party and the Labour Party.
The election itself was historic in that it established the Labour Party as the official opposition party, demoting the Liberals to a lowlier third-party status from which it never recovered.
But the decision to form a committee to get the views of the party’s rank and file MPs has given it an important role.
The committee meets weekly when parliament is sitting, with the gatherings usually providing an indicator of backbench support for the direction of the party, major policies or leadership.
It was Margaret Thatcher who coined the “men in grey suits” moniker, well before her resignation as prime minister and party leader in 1990.
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In 2018, Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May survived a 1922 Committee no-confidence vote triggered by rebel MPs who wanted a harder Brexit from the European Union.
May comfortably retained the Conservative Party leadership. Her authority nevertheless weakened, she then called a general election, only to win, but without a parliamentary majority for the Conservatives.
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Besieged on all sides, May eventually resigned. Johnson’s Conservative MPs, many who had said they were waiting for the Gray report before sending their letter to Brady, will be most mindful of the 1922 Committee.
If Brady receives enough letters, which are kept secret, he can organise a no-confidence vote. The committee then sets the rules of any subsequent leadership contest.
The committee also gives MPs a chance to “blow off steam”, said Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London.
“MPs can gather in meetings, some of which are addressed by the leader, that can give them a real sense of which way the wind is blowing,” Bale said.
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The 1922 Committee’s vice-chairs are two disaffected MPs. They are Nusrat Ghani, MP for the solidly Conservative shire of Wealden in East Sussex and William Wragg, MP for Hazell Grove, also in Greater Manchester.
It could lead to the police opening another investigation into Whips’ behaviour, with allegations they threatened to reveal details of MPs’ personal lives to the media or withdraw funding for local projects if the MP voted against the government.
With the Labour Party under the leadership of Keir Starmer now consistently 10 points ahead of the Conservatives in the polls, MPs, many of them who owe their seats to Johnson’s leadership in the 2019 election, face a tough decision about Johnson’s fate.
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They may have little choice if police pursue criminal sanctions. Johnson has been hit by claims of attending numerous parties that flouted lockdown rules, including a surprise gathering in the Cabinet Room at Downing Street for his 56th birthday in 2020, which was reportedly attended by 30 people.
“With the police now investigating, this nightmare gets even worse,” senior Conservative David Davis, who has already called on Johnson to quit, said on Twitter.
Johnson said he welcomed the police probe as a chance to move on from weeks of revelations that have seen him face growing calls to quit.
“I believe this will give the public the clarity it needs and help draw a line under the matter,” he told parliament.
Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Reuters
