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Britain’s Prime Minister Liz Truss this week vowed to steer the UK ‘through the tempest’, even as her authority dwindles. Photo: AP

How long will Liz Truss last as UK prime minister?

  • Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss is battling an economic crisis and dire opinion polls as she tries to assert her authority
  • Since succeeding Boris Johnson as prime minister, Truss has alienated voters, financial markets and her own MPs
Britain

Barely a month after taking power, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss already faces the question of how long she will last as leader.

Her government’s first major economic plan in late September was widely derided after it triggered financial market turmoil and sent the pound plunging to its lowest level against the US dollar.

Within days of announcing the “mini-budget”, Truss’ government was forced into a humiliating U-turn on part of the package that proposed tax cuts for the rich.

With Britain facing a protracted cost-of-living crisis, and the risk of the pound falling further, the troubles may only be the beginning for Truss, whose authority already appears to be dwindling.

Truss took over from Boris Johnson as prime minister early last month after a majority of Conservative Party members voted for her over former chancellor of exchequer Rishi Sunak in a leadership contest.

There is already dissent among Truss’ MPs, which could grow in coming weeks as dire opinion polls weigh on their own chances of political survival. A majority of Truss’ parliamentary colleagues supported her rival Sunak.

Some of Liz Truss’ top team say her project may already be over

“Truss’ biggest problem, if we assume for the moment that the markets have calmed down, is electoral,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

“The Conservative Party is full of MPs who worry every day about hanging on to their seats at Westminster, that translates almost immediately into a party management problem.”

According to the latest opinion poll by YouGov, 73 per cent of Britons have an unfavourable view of Truss, as do 60 per cent of Conservative voters.

The poll said 62 per cent of respondents wanted a general election in the next few months, one which if previous polls are to be believed would see the Conservatives decimated.

Recent opinion polls also showed an unprecedented lead for the main opposition Labour party.

Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng are under pressure to produce a full costing for their economic plans as the country teeters on the edge of recession.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss and her husband Hugh O’Leary at Britain’s Conservative Party’s annual conference in Birmingham this week. Photo: Reuters

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in the second quarter of 2022 fell 0.2 per cent compared to a 1.8 per cent rise in the eurozone countries and 3.5 per cent in the United States.

Truss this week vowed to steer the UK “through the tempest” as she closed her party’s annual conference in Birmingham.

UK media reported a fractious conference, with delegates openly criticising the government and some senior MPs not attending.

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Truss’s conference speech, where she made a pitch for economic “growth, growth, growth” and promised to fight what she called “the anti-growth coalition” of opposition politicians, momentarily calmed delegates, but is unlikely to heal the deep ideological divisions in the party.

“If they (Truss and Kwarteng) insist on carrying on with the rest of their tax-cutting plans, then - unless they are prepared to borrow the kind of money that may push up the cost of government bonds - that will mean spending cuts and ensuring that welfare benefits don’t keep pace with inflation,” Bale said.

Liz Truss is fighting to restore her dwindling authority after a chaotic first month in office. Pictured on the front page of a newspaper is Chancellor of Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. Photo: Reuters

“For many Conservative MPs that will only make the widespread perception that they only care about the rich while hitting the poor even worse. As a result, there will be - indeed there already is - a big argument about that from the bottom to the top of the party.”

Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries and Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg are among senior Conservatives unhappy about Truss’ plans to raise welfare benefits in line with worker’s wages instead of inflation.

“She (Truss) is very aware she has made some big mistakes over the past few weeks. It wasn’t her mistake that Conservative MPs removed Boris Johnson. But to remove his policies as well is a mistake,” Dorries told the Times.

“That was our mandate, our deal with the voters. Removing a prime minister and the policies people voted for less than three years ago is a troubling precedent to set in a democracy.”

Truss’ growth plans, including loosening planning laws to build in so-called “greenbelt” areas, to repeal environmental protection laws and restart fracking, are also likely to make traditional conservatives uncomfortable.

The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, for example, has accused the government of an “attack on nature”.

Truss’ plan to lift UK growth by rehashing Reaganomics always doomed to fail

Farmers, traditionally staunch supporters of the Conservative Party, are also turning against the party over concerns that post-Brexit deals with countries like New Zealand will put them at a disadvantage.

“Gazing ahead at the parliamentary future is rather like looking down at a snooker table,” wrote former Conservative MP Paul Goodman in the online party website ConservativeHome. “No-one can know what the impact of one ball crashing in to another will have on the rest, where each will ricochet and how they will settle.”

The talk now is that unless Truss can swiftly gain a grip on the Conservative Party and convince the financial markets of the feasibility of her growth plan, Truss could be out of office before Christmas.

If, as expected, soaring mortgage rates lead to a downturn in house prices and a rise in homelessness, Conservative unpopularity is also likely to increase.

The problem for the Conservative Party will be how to get rid of its fourth prime minister since the Tories came to power in 2010.

Although a general election is not due for two more years, another drawn-out leadership contest such as the one over the summer would rile both the party and public.

“I don’t think there is any way the Tories can inflict another full-blown leadership, two-stage contest on the party; but it is difficult to see who could take over as an unchallenged, consensual alternative to Truss,” Bale said.

If Truss was to resign, the only logical consequence would be a general election, which at this stage the party seems sure to lose.

The 2019 intake of Conservative MPs, especially those in the former Labour seats that rallied to Johnson’s high-spend strategy and claims to have “got Brexit done”, would be obliterated.

Another possibility is that the party could change the rules for choosing a new leader so that only MPs get to vote.

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

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