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Agence France-Presse

An huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has a nearly 4 per cent chance of smashing into the moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, thought to be capable of levelling a city, set a record in February for having the highest chance – 3.1 per cent – of hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
Earth’s planetary defence community leapt into action and further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid – called 2024 YR4 – would strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
But the odds that it would instead crash into Earth’s satellite have been steadily rising.

After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze towards the asteroid last month, the chance of a moon shot was at 3.8 per cent, Nasa said.
“There is still a 96.2 per cent chance that the asteroid will miss the moon,” Nasa said in a statement on Thursday.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defence office, said that this aligned with their internal estimates of around 4 per cent.
The new Webb data also shed light on the size of the space rock, which was previously estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres (131 to 295 feet).
It was now believed to be 53 to 67 metres, roughly the height of a 15-storey building.
This was significant because it was bigger than the 50-metre threshold for activating planetary defence plans.


If the asteroid still had a more than 1 per cent chance of hitting Earth, “the development of one or more deflection missions would already be starting now”, Moissl said.
There were a range of ideas for how Earth could fend off an oncoming asteroid, including nuclear weapons and lasers.
But only one has been tested on an actual asteroid. In 2022, Nasa’s DART mission successfully altered a harmless asteroid’s trajectory by smashing a spacecraft into it.
While no one wanted to need to test Earth’s defences on the potentially hugely destructive asteroid 2024 YR4, many scientists were hoping it would strike the moon.
“The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizeable moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view,” Moissl said.
It could offer up a range of information that would be “valuable for planetary defence purposes”, he added.
Mark Burchell, a space scientist at the UK’s University of Kent, told New Scientist that a moon hit would be “a great experiment and a perfect opportunity”.
And on Earth, “telescopes would certainly see it, I would say, and binoculars might see it,” he added.
The asteroid was the smallest object ever targeted by the Webb telescope.
Webb’s measurements of the space rock’s thermal data indicated that it “does not share properties observed in larger asteroids”, the European Space agency said in a statement.
“This is likely a combination of its fast spin and lack of fine-grained sand on its surface,” it said, adding that this was more common in fist-sized asteroids.
More information would come when Webb again observed the asteroid again next month.


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Space

The full moon eclipse targeted with a laser from the Foster Observatory telescope in Santiago, Chile, on March 14. File photo: AFP

Asteroid 2024 YR4. Photo: Nasa/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology via AFP

Pentagon urges faster militarisation of space, citing China’s advances

Artist’s representation of a spacecraft in a near-Earth orbit. On Thursday, Pentagon officials discussed accelerating the militarisation of space. Image: Shutterstock

General B. Chance Saltzman of the US Space Force. Photo: US Department of Defence

General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of US European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington on Thursday. Photo: AFP

Intuitive Machines’ moon lander apparently touches down on its side – again

Intuitive Machines’ Athena lunar lander enters orbit around the moon on Monday. Photo: TNS

Nasa astronauts back on Earth after 9 months stuck in space

The Crew Dragon capsule moments before splashdown off the coast of Florida on Tuesday. Photo: Nasa TV via Reuters

Support teams work around a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft shortly after it landed. Photo: Nasa/Keegan Barber via Reuters

Suni Williams. Photo: Nasa TV via Reuters

Butch Wilmore. Photo: Nasa/Keegan Barber via Reuters

News

World

United States & Canada

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was predicted at one point to have a 3.1 per cent chance of smacking Earth in 2032


Asteroid 2024 YR4 was predicted at one point to have a 3.1 per cent chance of smacking Earth in 2032.


Science