Tokyo 2020: will the Olympics be cancelled, postponed or modified?
- Despite all the positive noises from the IOC and Tokyo chiefs, the clock is ticking on the Olympic Games
- IOC boss Thomas Bach says he will not add ‘fuel to the flame of speculation’ but bookies bet against him
Even if you are not partial to gambling, there is little doubt the bookmakers are usually right. That is why it is a worry that many are saying it is odds-on that the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games will be cancelled.
Britain’s Betfair is offering $0.73 for the Olympics being chopped because of the coronavirus, while Irish bookie Paddy Power is even less optimistic, paying out just $0.66 for the cancellation of the Games. For the uninitiated, they are overwhelmingly small odds of the Games going ahead.
It is also offering $1.1 for Tokyo 2020 to go ahead as planned between July 24 and August 9, with $0.73 for the opening ceremony not taking place or being held somewhere other than the Japanese capital.
While you never see a poor bookie, you often see a poor Olympic host city once the greatest show on Earth has left town. Tokyo would be even worse off than those that have gone before if their Games is a no-go.
The Tokyo Games has already cost the Japanese government close to US$13 billion. That’s the official budget but unofficial figures have the true cost running as much as double that. A US$26 billion hit is hard to take when you get nothing back – and that is only for the hosts not factoring in the billions for sponsors and broadcasters or the expected stimulus for hotels, bars and restaurants.
Usually the stadiums only become white elephants after the Olympics and there is at least two weeks of action to enjoy before the gripes about the legacy they have left.
The official line remains that the Olympics is going to go ahead. That is coming from both the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the hosts.
IOC president Thomas Bach said on Wednesday the IOC is “fully committed” and “very confident with regard the success” of the Games.
“I would like to encourage all the athletes to continue their preparations with great confidence and full steam,” he said.
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This came after Olympic minister Seiko Hashimoto told Japan’s parliament on Tuesday that the Games will go ahead.
“We are doing all we can to ensure that the Games go ahead as planned,” Hashimoto reaffirmed, although she said they could be moved to later in the year.
“The contract calls for the Games to be held within 2020,” the former Olympian speed skater said. “That could be interpreted as allowing a postponement.”
The idea of a postponement was dismissed by IOC veteran Dick Pound last week, when he told Associated Press he could only see Japan “reluctantly” cancelling the Games rather than postponing them. Pound did say that it was “full steam ahead” for now.
Cancellation is a decision that would have to be made by the IOC rather than the Tokyo 2020 organisers, as per the contract. “Neither the word cancellation nor the word postponement was even mentioned” at Wednesday’s board meeting, Bach said.
“I will not add fuel to the flame of speculation,” Bach said when asked if there was a deadline for deciding whether to postpone the Games – last week Pound had mentioned late May as the latest that a decision could be made.
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Bach peddled the same line when asked if the WHO declaring the virus a pandemic would result in a shift in thinking at the IOC: “I will not take part in any way of such kind of mere speculations.”
There are plenty who are speculating. So what other options are on the table aside from the Games going ahead as planned, being moved to later in the year or being called off?
The 1906 Olympics was moved from Rome to London at 15 months’ notice after the eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Could the same happen now?
London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey offered up the 2012 hosts but is that even realistic when most of the venues have been repurposed or pulled down? It’s a similar story in Rio, which also has the added problem of locals still angered by the cost of the Games.
That’s not to mention that aside from the complicated logistics of helicoptering in an Olympics, the nature of the coronavirus outbreak means that shifting cities is not diminishing the risk posed by gathering people in one place and then sending them back around the world.
So what else could it be? A modified Olympics that still takes place within the original dates just not in the same way.
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Travel restrictions preventing tens of thousands of fans, athletes and those otherwise involved in the Games might precipitate this, but equally people might not want to travel even if they are allowed. Taken to its end point, the most ridiculous scenario would see only Japanese athletes competing.
Whoever does turn up can copy the US track cycling team who arrived in Beijing in 2008 wearing face masks, minus the need for apology.
A behind-closed-doors Olympics is perhaps the path of least resistance if it is insisted that the Games go ahead in some form. The Olympics is built for TV and even with empty stands it would still work, plus it would minimise the financial loss.
Right now, all bets are off.
