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Inside Out & Outside Ini

In wide-ranging columns appearing twice a week, David Dodwell, executive director of the Hong Kong-Apec Trade Policy Group, strives to understand and describe the distinctive characteristics at the heart of Hong Kong's continuing competitive advantages. It promises to be a fascinating journey as he seeks to understand and describe the forces that have shaped and are changing Hong Kong, and the role it is playing for China and in the region as we move steadily closer to 2047. 

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  • In enacting yet another round of tariffs on Chinese exports, the Biden administration has its sights set firmly on its fortunes in November’s election
  • The US president has to shore up Democrats’ support in rust belt states and clearly thinks American firms and consumers are ready to pay the price tariffs will bring
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The arithmetic underpinning the global economy is massively out of kilter at a time when the world desperately needs concrete action on climate change. We cannot afford to have leaders clinging to the status quo while increasing spending on defence and other domestic priorities.

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Rebuilding the US shipbuilding sector will take decades, if at all possible, and diluting China’s dominance will mainly benefit shipbuilding powerhouses like South Korea and Japan.

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Much of the criticism of artificial flowers is environmental: they are made in factories, use plastics and end up in landfills. But the cut-flower business also has poor green credentials.

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EU and US manufacturers already complaining of Chinese competition in solar power and electric vehicles won’t like China’s hydrogen policy. As it moves to produce hydrogen using renewable energy, this could become an important part of the world’s low-carbon future.

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China’s subsidies have been more effective than in most parts of the world because they are an intrinsic part of a distinct economic model. Rather than targeting China, the US and Europe should examine the effectiveness of their own economic strategies.

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With so many nations struggling to provide electricity and clean water, and to rebuild healthcare and education, it’s a travesty that billions of dollars are being diverted to arms production and defence.

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Countries must match their rhetoric with action to solve pressing problems such as climate change and the regulation of artificial intelligence. Despite paralysis at institutions like the United Nations, organisations like the Arctic Council and International Seabed Authority are making progress.

UN Tourism forecasts a full recovery this year but the data is skewed by the robust recovery in Europe; across Asia, arrivals remain well below 2019 levels.

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The mess Hong Kong has made of its waste management is unlikely to improve with the waste charging scheme and single-use plastic ban on the horizon. Rather than charging ahead, it might be wiser to further delay enactment until there is greater clarity of purpose and the plans could be improved.

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By 2050, it’s projected only a quarter of countries will have above-replacement birth rates; by 2100 there will be just six. This will reconfigure the world economy and require societies to be reorganised.

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The rise of such crimes, sometimes violent, has been made easier by social media and cryptocurrency. Best to keep your luxury watch in a safe, or better still, not have one at all.

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It’s not just how we can produce and afford the electricity, but also how we ensure we don’t aggravate global warming and squeeze domestic water supplies.

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Chocolate will stay expensive as the cocoa crop faces existential challenges while demand continues to surge, including from China. The most urgent task is to grow cocoa without harming the environment, and ensure that cocoa farmers can lift themselves out of poverty in the process.

Little was expected of the thousands of trade officials gathered in the UAE for the WTO ministerial conference, and they delivered just that. At a time when pressure for reform and the need for global cooperation are mounting, the WTO is still struggling to get out of its own way.

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Hongkongers cashing out their Mandatory Provident Fund last year and this year are likely to get less than they put in. Such forced savings should at least provide a minimum of financial security into old age

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The face of the 1 billion-strong obesity epidemic is changing, with rates surging across the developing world and growing faster globally for the young than for adults.

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As about half the world’s population goes to the polls this year, it’s worth asking exactly how democracy is delivering better than autocracies. Human rights and civil liberties are nice, but the true value of democratic politics must ultimately be judged by whether it delivers a full stomach.

While generative AI holds transformative promise for some, for others it heralds large-scale job losses and widespread ethical and security challenges. Even if this technological revolution lives up to its potential, it is clear its benefits will take years to reach consumers and firms in poorer countries.

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The city has had a rough ride and some things have faded, like the dominance of Western business leaders in Hong Kong’s executive suites, but the city is stepping up Greater Bay Area integration and making new connections with formerly neglected markets. Dramatic change is afoot.

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Donald Trump’s threat to encourage Russia to attack alliance members which are failing to ‘pay their bills’ has horrified leaders across the West. As the need for increased defence spending rises, pressure is being piled on national budgets that are already stretched thin.

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The recent explosion of outrage over widespread illegal development in Hong Kong is a reminder of the extent of disdainful disregard for the law. Such abuse undermines respect for the rule of law, attracts corruption and calls into question the government’s integrity.

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With prospects of a Trump 2.0 looming, the WTO zombified and experts warning of mega threats and a ‘polycrisis’, the absence of cooperation makes one fear the worst.

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Global crisis in trust in governments, the media and even NGOs means mounting difficulties in garnering public support for economically important innovation and often-controversial social change.

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Innovation has allowed the Jockey Club to remain competitive and retain and glamour of the sport, despite three terrible pandemic years and the decline in horse racing betting globally.

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At a time when climate change, pandemic threats and technological changes are compounding the disruptive force of more conventional risks such as demographic change and political turmoil, there is good reason to marshal the serendipitous forces that surround us.

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With industrial policy interventions growing, the transparency provided by a new global tracker will enable organisations like the IMF and WTO to distinguish between the good and bad.

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2023 ended without the technical recession economists expected, but their warning of stagflation and a potentially crippling debt crisis should not be easily dismissed.

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The social media revolution has delivered a host of problems which appear to be damaging students’ capacity to learn. This is a concern as tech-driven smart jobs will require stronger literacy, numeracy and scientific competencies.

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The 2019 unrest and three pandemic years have delayed Hong Kong’s integration, diminished its importance and left much of its part in the bay area development plan unfulfilled. Time to dust off the plan and use it.

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