Not the US, not China. India holds the cards in the Indo-Pacific
- India has ties with all the major regional players and the heft to alter the balance of power, if it so wished
- But a long tradition of ‘strategic autonomy’ is likely to see the status quo maintained, unless Beijing provokes change
India could well prove to be a “swing state” in these rapidly evolving diplomatic sweepstakes. As New Delhi’s economic and military muscle increases, it could either tilt the regional balance of power in favour of the US and its allies or choose to side with Russia and China – possibly creating a new multipolar order. India is also a major arms buyer and this is one card which it could play when dealing with countries like the US and Russia.
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Delhi has its own reasons for maintaining close communication with the US, Japan, Russia and China. The Modi government wants to spur further economic growth and needs strong ties with its major trading partners to do so.
Relations with Washington have been bumpy, to say the least, despite India inching closer in recent times with the signing of a memorandum of understanding on logistics exchange and its participation in the Malabar naval exercises with the US and Japan.
However, there are still many issues that need to be sorted out with respect to India’s ties with countries like the US.
Delhi recently slapped retaliatory tariffs on 29 categories of US imports after Washington withdrew preferential duty concessions for certain Indian exports to the US under a programme known as the Generalised System of Preferences.
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The pair’s economic ties have been slow to catch up, though. Bilateral trade between the two was a measly US$15.71 billion in 2017-18, as compared with US$84.44 billion for trade between India and China over the same period.
India, with its huge population, military capabilities and strong government, could significantly alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, given its tradition of strategic autonomy, Delhi is unlikely to commit to any one power bloc, even as it grows incrementally closer to the US and Japan.
That being said, it is also unlikely to give up its traditional ties with Russia. So whether India will act as a “swing state” in the Indo-Pacific may well depend on how its relations with China unfold.
Rupakjyoti Borah is a research fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo, Japan.