For India, diplomacy with China flows through the barrel of a gun
- New Delhi is staging a massive military exercise near the Chinese border, just as Xi and Modi prepare for their second informal summit
- This is no coincidence – as history shows, Sino-Indian military muscle-flexing is a standard feature before diplomatic engagements
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In April 2013, before the Indian foreign minister visited Beijing, the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engaged in a major stand-off near Daulat Beg Oldi, on the disputed border. In September 2014, when Xi visited India, Chinese and Indian forces were again deadlocked over the construction of a road by the PLA inside Indian territory near Demchok.
This eyeball-to-eyeball encounter lasted for more than two months and required some high-level crisis management. It almost scuttled Modi’s attendance at the August 2017 BRICS summit in Beijing.
Part of the reason for such impasses is simply the fact that India and China have differing perceptions of the border. Even after 21 rounds of border negotiations, the two countries have not been able to delineate their territorial limits. However, both Beijing and Delhi have devised confidence-building measures and institutionalised crisis management to the degree that even after such recurrent military confrontations, not a single bullet has been fired between the two sides.
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However, military manoeuvres are also a strategic tool as they signal resolve to the adversary and self-confidence to domestic constituencies. If Beijing intends to test India’s military preparedness, Delhi aims to indicate its readiness in meeting the PLA’s military challenge. Delhi believes that only by signalling military capacity and resolve can it bring China to the negotiating table. Indeed, diplomacy through defence has been a staple ingredient of India’s China strategy.
Delhi first learned this lesson after the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the origins of which have been attributed by Indian decision makers to the country’s military inefficacy. It was only after the September 1967 Nathu La clashes between the Indian Army and the PLA, in which China suffered heavy losses, that then prime minister Indira Gandhi opened backchannel talks with Beijing. These secret negotiations broke down due to the 1971 Bangladesh War.
In 1976, India’s new-found military superiority in the region allowed Delhi to re-establish diplomatic ties with China, despite the Soviet Union’s displeasure. By the time the two nations started negotiating the border dispute, after Chinese foreign minister Huang Hua’s visit to Delhi in April 1981, India had more forces along the Sino-Indian border.
This military strength allowed the Indian Army to effectively deter a massive PLA probe in Sumdorong Chu in 1987. As suggested by Shivshankar Menon, India’s former envoy to China, that stand-off “served a political purpose”. It also paved the way for the political settlement of the territorial dispute.
The eighth round of border talks in November 1987 was the first time the two countries stressed the need to avoid any armed confrontation along the border. In 1993, they signed their first-ever confidence-building measure, the Border Peace and Tranquillity Agreement.
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History shows that there exists a deep-seated belief in Delhi that vis-à-vis China, to paraphrase Chairman Mao, diplomacy flows through the barrel of a gun. China’s massive military modernisation, amassment of firepower and improvement in military logistics over the past two decades have weakened the capacity of India’s military to act as a deterrent across the countries’ shared border.
The MSC was purposely set up to address this gap. The military exercise on the LAC is no coincidence; it is an integral element of India’s diplomatic repertoire.
Yogesh Joshi is a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. He can be reached at [email protected]