As Indonesia stands up to China in the Natuna islands, can Japan come to the rescue?
- Indonesia recently forced Chinese fishing vessels from its waters as it held meetings with Japan’s foreign minister to strengthen ties
- But will Indonesia’s closer links with Japan help it face off against China? Especially as Tokyo’s relationship with Beijing improves
Last year, Japan provided Indonesia with US$22.7 million to develop fishing ports on six islands, and has invested US$7.26 million to build a fish market in Natuna, which will be named Tsukiji after the famous Tokyo market.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said Indonesia and Japan agreed to bolster coastguard coordination and address China’s illegal claims on the 9 dash line in the South China Sea.
“We shared a serious concern regarding efforts to change with force the status quo unilaterally, and we confirmed continuing close collaboration,” Motegi said, although not directly pointing a finger at China.
Japan is “going to work very closely regarding the South China Sea” and will start providing technical support to the Indonesian coastguard this month, Motegi said. The two foreign ministers also agreed to hold a “two-plus-two” meeting later this year.
While Japan has been a major investor in Indonesia since the 1970s and 80s, Chinese investments have also increased in recent years, leading to an effort by Indonesia to keep this in balance. Japan is the second largest investor in Indonesia after Singapore, amounting to US$31 billion in the last 10 years. China is Indonesia’s third-largest investor.
Last year Indonesia chose Japan over China to fund the construction of the 720km rail link between Jakarta and the country’s second-biggest city Surabaya, in east Java.
Japan’s presence not only gives Indonesia an alternative partner, but Asean as a whole.
Why fishing boats are on the front lines of the South China Sea
Japan recently earmarked investments of US$3 billion for high-quality infrastructure projects in the Asean region between 2020 and 2022, including power plants, urban development, transport, as well as communication and information. The move is arguably to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative because they share the target of infrastructure development.
China has also strengthened its foothold in Asean in recent years through increased investments as part of its BRI. The trade volume between China and Indonesia reached US$72.6 billion last year.
Japan defence chief warns China to respect norms in islands dispute
The recent friction between Indonesia and China in the Natuna Sea could therefore disrupt China-Japan relations.
Economic observers are starting to suggest Indonesia shift the course of its foreign policy from Beijing to Tokyo, given its improving diplomatic relations with Japan. This means that Japan will have to be drawn into the tension with China.
Moreover, on the strength of its investments from Japan, Indonesia is likely be braver to stand up against China, though this means it must be prepared if China withdraws its investment.
And after its stern steps that vigorously drove Chinese ships from the North Natuna Sea, and the fact that it proactively sought support from Japan, there is a possibility that Indonesia will invite Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei to stand up against China, perhaps through Japan, since China has threatened the sovereignty of many Asean members.
Since 2016, China has deliberately kept to holding bilateral discussions about the disputed South China Sea rather than negotiating with Asean as a group.
It remains difficult however to predict how far Indonesia and other Asean countries would dare to stand up to Beijing given that these countries are still seeing the benefits they can gain from China.
