What do Asia’s returning Isis fighters do next? You’re about to find out
- With new terror plots emerging and a rising threat from militant women and children, the fight against Islamic State is entering a chilling new stage
- One year after the fall of the terror group’s last stronghold of Baghouz, the fate of hundreds of Southeast Asian fighters remains unknown
If militants successfully reach Southeast Asia, they may be able to exploit illicit transit routes and porous borders that facilitate movement of people and goods between Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines around the Sulu and Celebes Seas. Movement could be facilitated by false identification, with fighters able to acquire fake identification documents in Malaysia; Sabah, in particular, is a hub for such activity.
Baghdadi’s dead, but Islamic State’s ideology lives on in Southeast Asia
Across the region, there is no uniform standard in laws and policies addressing returnees. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have all repatriated some citizens from Syria and Iraq, but there are important differences in their policies. For example, Indonesia and Malaysia repatriate some foreign fighters and their family members, with recent reporting suggesting that Indonesia is poised to repatriate more than 600 citizens with ties to militant groups. The Philippines repatriates its overseas foreign workers in Syria. Concerns remain that terrorist organisations in the Philippines may attempt to surreptitiously move fighters back to the country by claiming these individuals are overseas foreign workers.
Indonesian, Malaysian and Philippine visa policies leave these countries vulnerable to terrorists attempting to return with false documentation. Malaysia does not require visas for travellers from Syria, Iraq and Turkey, while the Philippines does not require visas for travellers from Turkey. Indonesia grants visas upon arrival.
Southeast Asian countries face significant challenges in preventing the entry and movement of militants. Malaysia has implemented a special security zone in eastern Sabah. Joint air and sea patrols in the Sulu Sea reduce but do not eliminate the risk of returnees exploiting smuggling routes. In Indonesia, security efforts have been repeatedly hampered by poor coordination between stakeholder agencies. And in the Philippines, Manila International Airport has historically implemented insufficient security practices.
Malaysia warns Isis may shift base to Southeast Asia, as militants seek fake passports
To mitigate the threat posed by returnees, Southeast Asian countries have enacted a number of legal mechanisms, though glaring vulnerabilities remain. Indonesia introduced legislation in 2018 criminalising activity associated with travelling abroad as a foreign fighter, but its efficacy may be hampered by an overwhelmed judicial system. Malaysian law permits lengthy periods of detention for terrorism suspects and monitoring upon their release. Returning family members of fighters are also subject to monitoring. The Philippines has limited legal mechanisms. Terrorist attacks in the country have continued despite gains made since the 2017 siege of Marawi.
Deradicalisation and disengagement programmes vary by country. Indonesia and Malaysia have well-defined programmes and claim high rates of success, though the programmes’ success rates are almost certainly inflated. The Philippines has introduced deradicalisation and disengagement programmes for imprisoned militants but has provided limited information on their extent and efficacy.
Isis terror tactics being exported to Southeast Asia, US official says
Some returnees have already been involved in plots and attacks in the region. High-ranking Indonesian Isis fighters have acted as “virtual plotters”, recruiting operatives and coordinating attacks in Southeast Asia via online communications from Syria. Further, the threat posed by female and child returnees may be underestimated by the regional authorities. Both groups have participated in recent attacks in Indonesia, and Isis propaganda suggests children of Southeast Asian foreign fighters have received indoctrination and military training in Syria.
The caliphate has been crushed, for now, but Isis’s fight is entering a new phase. Governments throughout Southeast Asia still have a lot of work to do to prepare. ■
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the chief executive officer of the private firm Valens Global. Colin P. Clarke is a Senior Research Fellow at The Soufan Centre and an assistant teaching professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Politics & Strategy