On South China Sea, expect more of the same from US President Joe Biden
- The incoming US president may be more multilateralist than his predecessor, but he remains tied to positions he adopted when last in high office
- Biden also inherits Donald Trump’s legacy of confrontation in the South China Sea and is likely to keep sending warships to the disputed waterway
Washington views the South China Sea issue as subsumed by the US’ larger quarrel with China. Beijing, for its part, maintains that its maritime claims are grounded in international law – fuelling tensions with other Southeast Asian claimant states and the US.
The ongoing dispute has shaped perceptions of China and even resulted in claimant states and some Western countries insisting on negative assumptions about Beijing’s intentions and purposes.
Their appointments also indicate that Biden is aware of the problems with American diplomacy over the past four years.
But after emphasising during the election campaign the need to strengthen ties between the US and its allies to restore American leadership, Biden may now seek to multilaterally oppose Beijing in the South China Sea.
In addition to his past positions on the issue, he now has to confront the Trump administration’s legacy of confrontation – with outgoing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issuing in July Washington’s strongest support yet for the 2016 ruling that invalidated China’s maritime claims.
As the US continues with its long-standing policy of recognising the arbitration award, we can expect to see more diplomatic and military interactions between it and the Philippines, which itself is set to have a presidential election in 2022 that is likely to usher in a new leadership in need of Washington’s support.
Yet the Biden administration’s expected return to a more multilateralist and “lawfare”-based approach in the South China Sea will not negate continuous, intensified military competition between the US and China.
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More footage emerges from 2018 near collision of US and China warships in South China Sea
Biden may take measures to improve communications between both sides so that a misunderstanding does not become the catalyst for military escalation.
But the US is likely to continue dispatching warships, strengthening military coordination with Southeast Asian claimant states and participating in regional security forum mechanisms.
This means the Sino-US relationship will not return to what it was in the past. The premise of “all-round competition” between the two sides means the tone of Washington’s South China Sea policy will continue to be defined by toughness. Its allocation of defence and diplomatic resources will stay focused on the Asia-Pacific region, too.
Ding Duo is deputy director of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies’ Research Center for Oceans Law and Policy in Hainan, China, and non-resident Research Fellow of the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) in Washington, D.C.