Will Biden’s China, Russia and North Korea woes provide ballast for a Trump return?
- On the first anniversary of the US Capitol insurrection and ahead of the November midterms, Trump is hoping the stars will align for him
- Amid Biden’s foreign policy struggles, a slimmed-down Kim Jong-un could also complicate matters again for the US
The editorial desk at This Week In Asia kindly thought of me when scouting for ideas for their forward-looking 2022 jamboree of predictions. I enthusiastically took on the challenge, looking for something beyond my ramblings on interest rates which they kindly published.
Revolution
This year is lining up to be a big one for US politics, with the midterm elections on November 8 determining control of Congress. Along the way, both the Biden and Trump camps will attempt to display political strength.
If you think November is a long way off, then just pause for a moment to remember where we were exactly one year ago, on January 6, 2021 – the day the US Capitol was stormed to stop the counting of electoral votes amid talk of a coup, civil war, the 200-year-old beacon of American democracy being extinguished and the lack of vegan meal options in jail.
Move on up
The first primary leading up to November’s midterm elections will be in Texas in March, followed by the battleground states Pennsylvania and North Carolina in mid-May. The latter two may ultimately tip the balance in the Senate in November. The primary for Georgia, one of the most influential states, is at the end of May.
You can’t always get what you want
While these events are taking place, Biden will be tiptoeing through the delicate world of foreign policy after a disastrous heavy-footed start on Iran and Afghanistan.
Biden tells Ukraine leader US will ‘respond decisively’ if Russia invades
Biden has approached a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine head-on by offering the Russians the carrot of de-escalation and dialogue, and the stick of sanctions and economic pain. This does not appear to have helped, as the Russians see the American stance as nothing but new threats, and have said that the Russian army will be stationed wherever they please.
Higher and higher
At home, no matter how hard Biden has tried, his approval ratings among the public have languished below 50 per cent, with fingers pointed at his poor track record in tackling the economy, immigration, and crime. And that was before the phone call with Putin.
A late-December poll by research consultants Redfield and Wilton noted a substantial disapproval of Biden’s handling of most everything. The survey also indicated if it came down to an election today, 44 per cent said they would vote for Trump and 38 per cent said they would vote for Biden. The poll also revealed that a 12 per cent pool of voters, an inordinately large share, are not sure who they’d vote for. That must surely have unnerved the Democrats and encouraged the Republicans.
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Trump and oddball NBA star Dennis “The Worm” Rodman are the only two Americans you can point out in a crowd that have gotten to spend time with Kim in the past 10 years.
As mad as it may seem right now at the beginning of 2022, I think Trump will successfully position himself this year to come back for another term, and with Kim getting involved, could help along the way by further adding to Biden’s foreign policy woes.
A sky full of stars
At the tender young age of 37, Kim has for a decade led a nuclear-armed North Korea. In December, he presided over a plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party to review the policies of 2022 the struggle of the Party, and the next period of DPRK socialist development.
Kim talks food, Covid and defence as North Korea sets focus for 2022
Unfortunately for Kim, old Covid-19 has already proved more unpredictable than was hoped, and it’s doubtful if goods will flow freely across China’s border by 2025, especially if its zero-Covid policy remains in place. Kim will soon twig that Omicron turns Covid-19 from pandemic to endemic in the West, with endless clusters popping up in China forevermore. With that, Kim may have few options but to rattle his sabre towards the West for attention, and food, which he won’t get from China, perhaps by firing off a few missiles over Japanese schools or setting off a test nuke or two again for dramatic effect.
Behind this notion is not just the fact that North Korea is suffering food shortages in silence, but also the observation that Trump seems to be biding his time and looking for an opportunity. Trump has certainly not gone away, but has picked his public appearances carefully after last year’s mess at the Capitol.
Just like paradise
It is not that Trump was particularly successful with his foreign policy, but he did not go head to head with the Russians, he lashed out at the Chinese when the time was right for maximum effect at home, and although he failed to seal the deal with North Korea, for a while at least, things were headed in the right direction.
Trump ripped up the Iran deal for Biden to patch up and although he set the stage for Nato to abandon Afghanistan, Biden ended up with the blood on his hands. Trump has always been very keen to reduce the US influence overseas, especially from the point of view of the costly physical military presence, when arguably it makes more sense to cut deals, sell arms and get out of the way.
Biden says Trump candidacy would motivate him to run again in 2024
Trumpers will vote Trump no matter what – it does not matter what the facts are. And they’ll vote for anyone who’s on his team too, which suggests we will see more radical candidates in the midterms. That could swing either way for the Democrats.
But with the never-ending pain of watching Biden’s foreign policy unfold, those 12 per cent of voters who make up the “don’t knows” could lean further towards the Republicans by the fall, especially if they too favour Trump’s deals, selling arms and getting America out of the way of a fight rather than going into yet another one.