Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gives Boris Johnson his Churchill moment, if he can finally engage some British intelligence

The UK prime minister has made a startling recovery from party-gate threatening to end his career to leading the allies against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
But to end the aggression, there must be a better understanding of Vladimir Putin’s motives – rather than simply calling him a mad man

Neil Newman

Published: 5:00pm, 7 Mar 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

Having lived in Asia for so long now that I’ve lost my right to vote in British elections, I can only gaze at the politics from afar. And recently, it has looked like insanity. I must say that at times I envy my 82-year-old mother who suffers from progressive dementia and is probably better in tune with the live broadcasts from Westminster than I, as she benefits from almost instantly forgetting what has just been said.

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, or BoJo for short, is our all-too-familiar lovable rogue who leads the British government. He’s something of an Eton toff with a scruffy mop of blond hair, a saggy suit that fits as badly as mine, with what could be a catapult in one pocket and a cheese and onion sandwich in the other. His personality largely propelled him to prime minister.

One of the most memorable orations of his before he snagged the job of PM was the acceptance speech for the London Olympics. It was masterful, engaging and absolutely magical:

“Ping-pong was invented on the dining tables of England in the 19th century, and it was called wiff-waff! And there, I think, you have the difference between us and the rest of the world. Other nations, the French, looked at a dining table and saw an opportunity to have dinner; we looked at it and saw an opportunity to play wiff-waff.”

Priceless. Even while accepting the job of hosting an event aspiring to unite the world in brotherhood through sports, he still managed to slip in a swipe at the French.

It doesn’t matter if you love him, hate him, agree with him or not, the fact is that he’s a colourful politician and a perpetual source of entertainment. So much so that the British public were convinced to give him a shot as he went from being a popular mayor of London, to a tough Brexit campaigner, to foreign secretary and eventually – when prime minister Theresa May wasn’t quite sure what to do with him – her challenger.

A protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in central London. Photo: AFP

You’ve got to fight for your right to party

Anyone who paid attention to UK politics just a few weeks ago would have been subject to some of the most cringeworthy debates I think have ever graced parliament: the topic was parties in No. 10 Downing Street during the Covid-19 lockdowns, badly showing up Johnson’s lax leadership. Even the PM’s birthday cake was the subject of discussion: was it shared in his office by colleagues? Was it delivered to the party by his wife, Carrie?

Debates ensued, sometimes hysterical, from the opposition parties, led by Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey, over what was a business meeting and what wasn’t, why there was booze involved. They concluded that the PM should resign for inappropriately eating cake. The police were called in and the nation went through an agonising wait for the assessment from civil servant Sue Grey, someone we had never heard of and will likely never hear of again. For a painful moment, Boris had to lay off the cake and eat humble pie directly in front of Sir Keir.

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Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden was putting his hand up daily to say that US intelligence believed Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Johnson soon twigged that it was likely and refocused on the leadership job even though the Ukrainians were still not convinced – after all, they had lived with the threat for some years after the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014.

As we now know, the Americans were right on the button, and to their credit MI6, British intelligence, were concerned about this last November. Boris swiftly manoeuvred himself from “party-gate”, and “cake-gate” to a path that perhaps will allow him to leave his greatest mark on history, as a wartime leader – like his idol Sir Winston Churchill. His hair was practically ablaze as he left Starmer and Davey in the dust, possibly just days from being kicked out of office.

The debris of battle on the outskirts of Irpin, Ukraine, following the Russian invasion. Photo: TNS

The Russians are coming

I think we can all be united in condemning what the Russians are brutally doing in Ukraine but mainstream media is largely engaged in guesswork as to why, with politicians and journalists keen to label Russian President Vladimir Putin a mad man and now likely a war criminal – which I’m not sure helps in saving lives.

The optics are decidedly in our face thanks to live-streaming and minute-fresh videos from people on the front lines. It’ll be difficult for either government to spin events in the way that the British and Argentine governments could during the Falklands War. Yet mobile phone cameras and the internet cannot totally eliminate the fog of war, and it is still difficult to judge exactly what’s going on the ground. The Ukrainian government’s reports tell us Russia’s plans have been derailed and thousands of their troops have been killed, and while Russia’s own media coverage has been a bit more quiet, they tell a different tale. So who’s right?

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I watched a rare interview with Putin, recorded last June by NBC. It is worth 90 minutes of your time, and may give some clues to what this is all about. In the interview Putin is very concerned about Nato expansion east and the accusations of cyberattacks and meddling in Western elections without a forum to refute the “evidence”. And in the case of the interviewer, pressure to answer questions on Western speculation about things that may or may not be going on. I now wonder if those concerns have been festering in the past year with limited engagement as governments have been in turmoil focused on Covid-19 … and cake.

The irony is, Putin wanted to be invited to Nato early in his office as president, so that with its extensive borders Russia could enjoy the stability and security that was offered by its membership, he was however snubbed by George Robertson, who led Nato at the time, telling him he would have to “apply” to join Nato rather than being invited.

Russian President Vladimir Putin: what exactly does he want? Photo: AFP

British bulldog

One famous quote from the halls of No. 10 seems appropriate right now for Ukraine: “When you are going through hell, keep going” – Sir Winston Churchill.

The international community has shown staggering support for Ukraine, with Germany hopping off the fence to offer significant lethal aid, Switzerland and Singapore departing the neutral path – surely surprising Russia as much as the rest of us – and even little Luxembourg is finding some anti-tank missiles to donate. Perhaps the tidal wave of international pressure, which threatens to put Russia back 30 years economically, coupled with a greater clarity of what assurances Putin needs from the West will have the desired effect and stop this.

As for Boris, this is his time to prove to the nation that they were right to back him as prime minister. In just the past few weeks he really has taken up the challenge and called out Putin – who needs to now be properly understood and engaged by a strong leader. I only hope that Johnson engages some British intelligence, and we hear fewer inspirational quotes from cartoon characters such as Daddy Pig or Kermit the Frog, and more from his idol.

As I try to propagate my thinning thatch, I bring news that you too can have a mop like Boris. I can recommend the following: dilute cider vinegar to invigorate and clean the scalp; eat lots of oysters, red meat, brazil nuts and tuna for protein, zinc and selenium; and for biotin which is good for the tummy, have a big bowl of sauerkraut – well fermented, like Putin’s fears of Nato and the West.

And when you get out of bed, comb your hair with a balloon.

Neil Newman is a thematic portfolio strategist focused on pan-Asian equity markets