Myanmar youth look to flee conscription or join armed rebels fighting junta: ‘the army is losing control’
- Myanmar’s military is aiming to recruit 5,000 able-bodied fighters every month from April under a conscription order observers say reveals it weakness
- The move has spawned a rush for the exits, as young people say they ‘want to leave ASAP’ – or will join armed groups fighting the junta if they cannot
“Join us,” John Paw, 27, of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), one of the largest PDFs in Myanmar that supports local ethnic armed groups, told This Week in Asia.
In a truck crammed with KNDF fighters returning along a dusty road from a recent raid on a military base in Shardaw town, Karenni State, John Paw laid out the challenges of restoring local governance and the economy in areas where the junta’s writ no longer extends.
“We have many needs, not just for the fighting in defence, but from agriculture to administration, we have so many things to build together and we need your help,” he said.
“That’s why I want to ask you to join our People Defence Forces.”
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The junta says it wants 60,000 new recruits to sign up each year – starting with 5,000 every month from April. Anyone who dodges the draft faces up to five years in jail.
For the nearly 14 million people who are eligible for conscription, it’s a case of fight or flight.
Mu Mu, a 23-year-old professional in Yangon, didn’t hesitate to make her decision as soon as the conscription order was announced.
“I want to leave ASAP,” she told This Week in Asia, using a pseudonym to avoid alerting the military. But time is running out to flee.
“They might stop people leaving soon,” Mu Mu said. “This conscription law shows that the army is losing control in many parts of the country, the regime is nearing the end. But first they will make the ordinary people carry the consequences. Either I get out or I join the PDFs.”
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‘Our future is fading’: Myanmar youth dodge compulsory military service by fleeing to Thailand
Thailand, a country that does not have an asylum system for the protection of refugees, is under pressure to consider formalising entry ahead of the expected influx.
For now, those pouring across the border illegally are being arrested.
“Thailand needs to give protective legal status to Myanmar refugees or anyone fleeing the country,” said Chit Seng, Myanmar human rights associate for Fortify Rights.
“They are fleeing persecution, the junta has proven again and again that they don’t have a humane bone in them and civilians are a means to an end for the military.”
The junta has proven again and again that they don’t have a humane bone in them and civilians are a means to an end
Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has urged any Myanmar people seeking to enter the country to do so by legal routes only.
Thailand has long hosted tens of thousands of people forced out of Myanmar by decades of conflict. It has also broadly turned a blind eye to a hidden community – perhaps already numbering in its millions – of Myanmar exiles pushed out since the February 2021 coup.
The kingdom could also offer legal job opportunities and training to avoid forcing young, driven Myanmar people into the shadow economy, Chit Seng said.
Visas, work and protection
The military’s decades-long stranglehold over Myanmar, with junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at its head, is being challenged like never before.
They have been backed up by PDF units that vary in size, arms and effectiveness, but which continue to nag at the junta, ambushing military patrols and bases.
Analysts say the conscription law reveals an army that’s starting to lose control as it resorts to time-worn methods of violence and coercion of the civilian population to survive.
Unverified reports on Myanmar social media say abductions by the army have already begun, while potential conscripts speculate that bribery will be the only way to avoid being conscripted.
An exodus of Myanmar youth may catch Southeast Asia off guard, experts have warned.
“We urge Asean member states and the wider international community to help provide access, including visas and educational opportunities to Myanmar youth who seek to flee ahead of the draft,” said Kasit Piromya, former Thai foreign minister and a board member of the Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights group.
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As the avenues available to a hollowed-out military narrow, pro-democracy fighters say the time is ripe for those facing conscription to instead help push the junta over the edge.
“Do you want to build up a country where you have the full rights to create your own destiny?” asks John Paw of the KNDF.
“Or do you still want to live under the control of the military and fight your own brothers?”
