“At any point, a defection of two or an abstention of four could cause his collapse,” he said. “He would remain a target of extortion from those within the government.”

Analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi, of University Malaya’s Institute of Malay Studies, described the margin as “both fragile and uncertain”.

“It is, however, expected that Muhyiddin’s administration will last until parliament is dissolved through political bargaining,” said Awang Azman, pointing out that the budget vote may not necessarily have been a referendum on Muhyiddin’s government – rather, it may have been passed due to concerns regarding the economy and public welfare.

In a statement posted to Facebook later, Muhyiddin thanked lawmakers who had supported the budget, saying that they had prioritised the welfare of the people. “I hope MPs will continue to give their best service to the people and the country,” he said.

In the five weeks since the budget was first tabled, Muhyiddin has come under questioning from multiple quarters, including from within his ruling Perikatan Nasional coalition.

Umno, which ruled the country for 61 uninterrupted years until 2018’s watershed election, has an enormous sway over Muhyiddin as it supplies the most number of MPs to a razor-thin parliamentary majority.

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Outside his own camp, Muhyiddin faced sharp criticism from Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan alliance. Pakatan Harapan, the shock victors of the 2018 polls, was in February booted from power as a result of a self-coup instigated by Muhyiddin, who was then part of the grouping.

Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional coalition has struggled to govern as Umno piles on fresh demands in exchange for propping up the new government, and as Pakatan Harapan leaders plot to oust Muhyiddin.

Amid the turmoil, Muhyiddin in October sought to suspend parliament on the pretext that a state of national emergency was required to deal with escalating Covid-19 cases.

Pakatan Harapan fiercely opposed the move, claiming that the under-fire prime minister was seeking to avoid a defeat of his budget. The Malaysian king vetoed the plan.

Subsequently, Muhyiddin changed tack and vowed to seek bipartisan support for his budget. But when unveiled, the budget did not fulfil several of Pakatan Harapan’s demands, including subsidy extensions and an increase in education spending.

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Anwar, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister who split from Umno in the late 1990s to form a reform-focused opposition movement, has since September claimed that he had more support from MPs than Muhyiddin.

However, upon the second reading of the budget bill on November 26, Anwar directed his alliance to back Muhyiddin’s budget bill, saying the plan was to allow further deliberations in the committee level of parliamentary debate.

Despite Pakatan Harapan’s dissent, the government has won all the procedural votes held since then on ministries’ budgets. Pakatan Harapan had on Monday asked all its MPs to reject the budget.

In a statement released after the vote, Anwar said it was “disappointing” that certain MPs had voted in favour of the “fundamentally flawed” budget, adding that Perikatan Nasional had only prioritised its own political survival.

Analysts, however, noted that his initial shutdown of a bloc vote may have been a serious misstep.

“For his cynical take of the budget vote as merely the arena for his (own) numbers, he has undermined himself and the opposition,” said Wong of Sunway University.

“For 2021, he must stop talking about numbers like a miserable old uncle trying his luck in a lottery shop. His only achievement this week is that Mahathir and Tengku Razaleigh have joined his club,” he added.

“If Anwar continues to sleep on his job as opposition leader because of his dream of becoming Prime Minister, he will be qualified to be neither,” Wong said. “Anwar should form a shadow cabinet in 2021 if he wants to stay in the race.”

Malaysia’s Anwar on defensive after backing Muhyiddin’s budget bill

Analyst Awang Azman said the best way forward now would be for Anwar to strengthen grass roots support, ensure his coalition members effectively serve in their respective areas, and provide strong leadership.

“This offers the best formula in developing Pakatan Harapan and his support base to face Perikatan Nasional when Parliament is dissolved to make way for elections,” he said.

The budget – which includes special measures for low-income groups to cope with the aftershocks of the recession as well as an allocation for Covid-19 vaccines – will be passed into law after it is cleared by the upper house of parliament and receives Sultan Abdullah’s assent.