Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi had praised Hun Sen’s move as part of efforts to seek a breakthrough in the turmoil, even as he expressed concern over the ongoing violence against civilians.

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Experts said Japan is keen to maintain friendly ties with Cambodia as part of Tokyo’s efforts to check China’s influence in the region. Cambodia in particular is heavily dependent on China – around 43 per cent of its foreign direct investment in 2019 came from China, while 70 per cent of its infrastructure projects were financed by Chinese firms, according to the Asia & The Pacific Policy Society.

Astrid Norén-Nilsson, a senior lecturer at the Centre for East and South-East Asian Studies at Lund University in Sweden, said Japan initiated the visit that coincided with the 30th anniversary of Japanese peacekeeping operations in Cambodia.

“Japan seeks to cultivate its position as a benevolent ally of Cambodia, drawing on its historical role in peacekeeping, to balance Chinese influence,” Norén-Nilsson said, adding the visit can also be seen as Japan’s “endorsement of [Hun Manet’s] future leadership role”.

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In December, Hun Manet was elected by the Central Committee of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to be the country’s next prime minister. A deputy Commander of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) and joint chief of staff, he also graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point in 1999.

Charles Dunst, an associate at The Asia Group and fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Hun Manet’s visit was aimed largely at improving his public image at home.

“Hun Manet faces substantial opposition from CPP officials who want the job for themselves or their sons, as well as from normal citizens who have tired of [the] family rule – objecting in particular to the clan’s close Chinese ties.”

Japan’s ‘soft approach’

Bunna Vann, a research fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace, said Japan may believe that Hun Manet is someone it can “effectively work with for putting Cambodia back on the pathway of democracy”.

He noted Tokyo often pursued “a soft approach” in engagement with Phnom Penh despite the latter’s human rights violations and “democratic backsliding”.

Given China’s growing influence in Cambodia, engaging with Hun Manet is “a rational strategy” for Japan, a key development partner for Cambodia, said Kimkong Heng, a visiting senior research fellow at the Cambodia Development Center, a Phnom Penh think tank.

Pointing out that Japan prioritises economic ties with Cambodia over governance concerns, The Asia Group’s Dunst said while Western countries had criticised Hun Sen’s human rights record, Tokyo had worked with Phnom Penh to facilitate investments in and provide economic help to Cambodia.

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Chen Heang, a junior researcher and project coordinator at Future Forum, a Phnom Penh-based think tank, said Tokyo aimed to keep China’s regional security expansion in check and also balance China’s military influence in Cambodia.

Statistics from Cambodia’s defence ministry show the country received US$84 million from China in 2019 in military help. Before the pandemic, China also conducted annual military exercises with Cambodia.

“I think this visit might hand Hun Manet some non-traditional security help which Japan officially provides to others. Both parties might also discuss the FTA,” Chen noted.

Cambodia currently has two bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs) with China and South Korea. The former came into effect on January 1, while the latter is expected to be implemented within the next two months.

Heading to China anytime soon?

Dunst from The Asia Group said the heir apparent’s next visit to China was “likely not a priority” given China’s zero-Covid policy and its current focus on the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Hun Manet’s visit to Japan reflects the “Hun clan’s efforts to demonstrate that they are not dependent on China, about which many Cambodians have negative opinions”, he said.

“Hun Manet wants to portray himself as an independent leader who will foster strong ties with countries like Japan, of which most Cambodians have a favourable opinion, even though his father’s regime is reliant on China,” Dunst noted.

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But Heng from the Cambodia Development Center said that Hun Manet’s visit to Japan might encourage China to arrange a meeting.

“Hun Manet is not yet a Cambodian prime minister. If he was a prime minister, he might pay his visit to China first to strengthen Cambodia-China relations and show how important China is to Cambodia,” he said.

Chen from the Future Forum said there was a limit to how far Japan could go in fostering ties with Cambodia and it would depend on the extent of “domestic threats” to Hun Sen’s leadership. If the situation was not “under control”, then Cambodia could be expected to rely more on China, given that Beijing has often publicly backed Phnom Penh when the latter has come under international pressure for rights abuses.

“This is China’s important card that [it can play that] Japan does not have,” Chen added.

Additional reporting by Associated Press