India and UK’s ‘common threat perception’ of China could keep delayed trade deal on track
- The ‘biggest of them all’ pact was due to be signed by Diwali but appears to have stalled as Liz Truss’ administration cracks down on immigration
- And with the Conservatives seeking to oust Truss, the deal is not likely to be a priority, but the ‘common threat perception’ of China could keep it on the table
Questions have also swirled over the deal’s priority, given that Truss’ governing Conservative Party now seems intent on replacing her – just a month after she was elected party leader.
An unprecedented 80 per cent of voters have a negative opinion of Truss, according to a latest poll by YouGov, making her the most unpopular leader in the UK’s recent political history.
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Then last week, British Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch said the government was “no longer working to the Diwali deadline”, but added that the two sides “were close” to a deal and that they were “still working” on it.
While India’s ministry of commerce and industry did not respond to This Week in Asia’s queries, Indian media reports have quoted sources from the agency confirming that the deal was unlikely any time soon. Speculation in New Delhi was rife that the deal might be signed only next year.
A Department for International Trade spokesperson told This Week in Asia that it “won’t sacrifice quality for speed and will only sign when we have a deal that meets both countries’ interests”, a sign that London was no longer keen to match pace with a deadline set by Modi.
What changed?
Two recent events might have driven some of this change in the momentum.
Soon after taking over as Britain’s Home Secretary, Suella Braverman had “reservations” about a possible FTA with India and “having an open border migration policy with India”, since the “largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants”.
Braverman also criticised a deal signed by the Johnson government with India on action against visa overstayers, saying it had “not necessarily worked very well”.
For many in New Delhi, this was a sign that the Truss administration was hardening its stance on immigration – an issue critical to India’s interests. It had promoted easier, relaxed immigration rules for its citizens going to Britain on long-term visas as a key policy, partly as a way to shore up domestic support for the trade deal.
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Analysts say that for Britain and its former colony India, this is an instance of a clash between their domestic and global politics on two key counts – trade and immigration.
Kira Huju, a London School of Economics Fellow in International Relations, said the separation between domestic and global politics was getting “impossible to sustain”.
“The increasing normalisation of anti-immigration sentiment inside the Conservative Party is crucial here, too. India will want a more generous visa regime, which an increasingly anti-immigration Conservative Party will be hard-pressed to make.”
Huju said the trade deal may no longer be “top of the agenda” for Truss. “There is unlikely to be much public attention left for a slow, technical trade deal negotiation with India, and hence few electoral rewards for Truss to pursue one,” she added.
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The China angle
Yet, other analysts believe that even if the deal is delayed and political instability continues in the UK in the short-term, there still remain many binding factors for the two countries in the medium and long term.
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Boris Johnson’s visit to New Delhi in April had reflected Fleming’s concerns. The UK, in a statement during the visit, had said it “will also seek to support India’s requirements for new technology to identify and respond to threats in the Indian Ocean”, without naming China.
“India is also seeking new defence partnerships for collaboration under its Make in India programme as well as technology transfers, and having the UK participate in its indigenous defence manufacturing industry would give this a huge boost,” she added.