India-China relations: Modi, Xi look set to meet. Will frosty ties thaw at BRICS, G20 summits?
- Modi and Xi have not had an in-person meeting since 2019 and the ongoing border dispute has only served to inflame tensions
- The Chinese president’s presence at India’s G20 summit will speak volumes, but analysts warn that ties will not improve noticeably in the short term
But whether the two leaders will hold bilateral talks and seek to mend their countries’ deeply strained ties remains to be seen.
Diplomatic freeze?
BR Deepak, a professor of Chinese and China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said the possibility of a Modi-Xi meeting on the sidelines of next month’s BRICS summit was “very high”.
Such a meeting, Deepak said, could kick-start talks to resolve the stand-off.
China-India ‘disconnect’ could fuel ‘summer of discontent’ along disputed border
“I believe if disengagement between the troops happens and negotiations on the friction points continue, it could pave the way for Xi’s prospective visit [to India for the G20 summit],” Deepak said.
Retired Indian Navy commodore RS Vasan noted there were similar expectations about the recent SCO summit before it went virtual.
“There were expectations that Xi would visit India and there would be some amount of easing of tensions on the bilateral front,” said Vasan, now director general of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. “But these expectations have been [dampened].”
Flare-ups galore
Ties between the two Asian giants have been coming apart at the seams recently.
Journalists became ensnared in the frayed tensions, with Indian media reporting that the last remaining Chinese journalist in India had been “expelled” after his visa was not renewed, while at least three Indian journalists based in Beijing were reportedly barred from remaining in China.
India says it hopes its journalists can continue to work in China
Rajiv Bhatia, a distinguished fellow at the Gateway House think tank, said these flare-ups had reduced optimism about a Modi-Xi meeting taking place.
The old approach of relying on multilateral collaboration despite strained ties “is showing limitations and running into difficulties”, said Bhatia, pointing to last year’s G20 summit in Bali, where the two leaders shook hands but chose not to hold talks.
“I don’t think there was confidence [in Delhi] that an in-person bilateral meeting during the SCO summit would have possibly helped the bilateral relationship. In fact, it might even have complicated matters.”
“The Chinese want to race ahead, but India wants to make sure that the cohesion and consolidation of BRICS are not affected by its sudden expansion,” he said.
A G20 without China?
Meanwhile, along the Line of Actual Control, tensions are already hardening.
“For India, this means its armed forces will now have to match a large-scale and probably semi-permanent Chinese presence along the border with Aksai Chin, perhaps for years to come,” the report said.
On Wednesday, Ladakh councillor Konchok Stanzin claimed on Twitter that the Chinese military had pitched four tents, three of which were later removed, in “buffer zone” areas created as part of troop disengagement agreements in the region.
Is latest China-India border clash the start of increased violence to come?
In Delhi, many fear the unresolved border stand-off now threatens to cast a shadow over Xi’s participation at India’s G20 summit.
“For the government, a G20 summit without China will be a diplomatic loss, but having Xi on Indian soil at a time when Indian troops are locked in a stand-off augurs badly for Delhi’s domestic politics,” said a think-tank expert in the Indian capital who declined to be named, adding that Modi’s government needed a breakthrough in the border stand-off before the G20 meet.
Fellow think-tank expert Bhatia said he did not “share the optimism” that the border dispute would be resolved any time soon, but noted that China’s own foreign-policy compulsions meant Xi was more than likely to attend the G20 summit anyway.
Xi’s attendance at the G20 summit, though helpful, might not lead to bilateral relations improving right away, warned professor Deepak.
“Given the dynamics of India’s bilateral and international engagement, India-China relations will not return to the same equilibrium in the short or medium term,” Deepak said. “Both sides will have to manage and control differences so the chances of conflict are minimised.”